Astros: How Set Is The Starting Rotation?
By Yoni Pollak
At House of Houston, we’re evaluating every position on the Astros roster as we begin the offseason.
Since being eliminated a few weeks ago, we’ve gone through catcher, first base, second base, shortstop, third base and the outfield. Today we shift gears and look at the starting rotation.
Dallas Keuchel is the team’s ace. He’s the likely AL Cy Young winner this season and will be the team’s starting Opening Day pitcher no matter what. There’s not much more to add to his spectacular season other than mentioning he will also likely add a Gold Glove (again) to his trophy case.
It gets interesting when we talk about the rest of the rotation. Last year’s rookie, Lance McCullers Jr., figures to be the team’s #2 or #3 starter next year. The 22-year old finished the year with a 3.22 ERA and allowed just two runs in six innings to the Royals in his lone playoff start.
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Collin McHugh will also likely be a lock for the rotation. He had a 3.89 ERA in 32 starts last year and his ERA should drop a bit if his BABIP drops from the high .310 number we saw in 2015. He’s probably not the 2.73 ERA pitcher we saw in 2014 but we can expect a season with an ERA around 3.50.
Mike Fiers figures to have earned a spot in the rotation. He finished the season with a 4.03 ERA in 31 games between the Brewers and Astros last year. While in Houston, Fiers had a 3.32 ERA though that was accompanied with a pretty high 4.39 FIP. The 30-year old is likely the leading candidate for the #4 spot in the rotation but the Astros could also put him in a long-bullpen role if they make other moves.
Scott Feldman‘s injury-plagued season can be broken up into two seasons. The veteran was inconsistent the first two months of the season and went on the DL with a 4.80 ERA in late May. When he came back in July, Feldman looked much better and finished with five quality starts in his last eight starts. He even had the lowest ERA (1.33) in August among all American League pitchers. Unfortunately for Feldman, he hurt his shoulder in his first start in September ending his season.
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The first three spots in the rotation seem clear but there are several options for the final two spots. Besides Fiers and Feldman who are the likely favorites at this time, youngsters such as Mark Appel and Vincent Velasquez are two options the Astros may look into. Dan Straily, Asher Wojciechowski, Brad Peacock and Brett Oberholtzer are likely on the outside looking in.
There’s also a decent chance the Astros look to acquire another starting pitcher. They may try and re-sign Scott Kazmir or look at David Price, Jordan Zimmerman, Johnny Cueto and other top-of-the-line options. If the Astros can pair Keuchel with another legitimate option and shift the rest of the rotation down a spot, it would make their potential playoff rotation even more scary.
There are moves to be made by the Astros and I don’t believe we’ll know the five starters until Opening Day. I think we see the Astros acquire at least one starting pitcher and likely move one or two over the course of the offseason.
Fun times ahead for GM Jeff Luhnow!
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