Who’s On First For The Houston Astros In 2016?
By Yoni Pollak
As the MLB playoffs drag on and Houston fans continue to not watch the playoffs (maybe you are but I just can’t do it), we here at House of Houston continue to break down the Astros roster position by position.
Yesterday we spoke about the men behind the plate. Today we’ll move to the corner of the infield and try and figure out who starts the 2016 season at first base.
First base was arguably the most disappointing position given expectations for the 2015 season. After Chris Carter‘s Jekyll and Hyde 2014 season, Carter was even worse for over 90 percent of this season. The powerful righty hit .199 for the entire 2015 season, spending much of his season striking out or hitting into outs in big situations.
Manager A.J. Hinch eventually benched Carter in September hoping to turn his season around and Carter proved Hinch right the last two weeks of the season. After hitting .181 through September 17th, the veteran finished the year with 15 hits in 43 at-bats (.348), smacking six home runs in the process and carried the slumping Astros offense to a postseason birth. Carter continued his hot-hitting in the postseason, batting .294 with one home run in 17 at-bats.
So the Astros have an interesting dilemma at first base. The 28-year old has now been the Astros primary first baseman for the last three seasons but he’s been incredibly inconsistent over that time. It took Carter a full three months to get his bat going in 2014 and last season it took five and a half months to get anything positive from him.
Carter is going into the last year of his deal and should see a slight increase from the $4.175 million he made in 2015. The Astros could choose to stick with him for one more season or dangle him around to other general managers. Teams in the American League could value Carter as a power-hitting DH. If National League teams are intrigued, it would likely be at first base where defensively he’s an average-at-best first baseman. At this point, Carter is no better than a below-average left fielder defensively.
If Carter is traded, the Astros would likely give the starting job to A.J. Reed. The 22-year old hit 34 home runs across two levels (A+ and AA), slashing .340/.432/.612 in 135 games. Reed is considered the Astros first baseman of the future and the future may already be calling this coming opening day.
If not Reed, Tyler White is another option from the farm system. Though not a highly-rated prospect, White finished the 2015 with 14 home runs and 99 RBI to go along with his .939 OPS. White was actually better at the Triple-A level where he hit .362 with a 1.026 OPS in 57 games last season.
One of those three is likely to be the starter at first base but the Astros could also decide to go with a platoon at first base. Marwin Gonzalez and Luis Valbuena saw time at first base last year and the Astros will be looking to get Gonzalez and Valbuena at-bats next season, assuming neither are dealt this coming offseason.
If I were running this team I would trade Carter this offseason. Power is always wanted on the market and Carter has smashed 90 home runs in the last three seasons and many of those were no-doubters. Some team will be willing to trade for that power but it may not be at the price the Astros expected. Still, I think the Astros do find a trade partner for Carter and he’s gone.
With Carter out, I think it’s time for the A.J. Reed show. Reed’s power is legitimate and he would be a huge addition to the lineup if he can keep his average anywhere from .275 and higher. Heck, even .225-.250 would be an improvement from what we have seen.
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I also wouldn’t be surprised if Tyler White starts the season at first base and Reed doesn’t come up till mid-April. GM Jeff Luhnow would likely give him the Kris Bryant treatment (keeping a guy in the minors for the first 10-or-so games can give the Astros an extra year of control in the future) which would mean White or Valbuena/Gonzalez at first base to start the season. Another option is a June call-up for Reed if the Astros want him to continue to prove he’s capable of hitting at a higher level.
First base is an important position in every lineup and the Astros have seen little production outside of power over the last three years. Will they finally give up on Carter and go with the young guns or will we see one more year of an inconsistent Carter?
How would you divvy up the at-bats at first base next season?
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