Goran Dragic Won't Improve the Houston Rockets

Goran Dragic, apple of the eye of Rockets fans everywhere, is ultimately just a nice piece to have driven by misguided feelings. Don’t get me wrong, nostalgia and admiration are natural. It stoked the fires of “Big Three” talk from the moment LeBron James trashed an entire city on national television then subsequently played the victim in South Beach. Hear me out, though. I’m not saying Rockets fans shouldn’t want the best team in the league or the best product on the court that Les Alexander can put together. What I am saying, however, is that maybe we need to re-assess why we want what we do.

Feb 14, 2015; New York, NY, USA; Houston Rockets guard Patrick Beverley (2) celebrates during the 2015 NBA All Star Skills Challenge competition at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Patrick Beverley has become a favorite whipping boy for Rockets fans. Admittedly, his performance has slumped. Ironically, Beverley’s recent win in the skills competition was panned on Twitter but James Harden’s All-Star performance, an equally hollow exercise, has been exalted. Let’s set that aside for a moment. Back to the criticism of Beverley. Rockets fans are clamoring for a Goran Dragic reunion at the deadline. Rumors have surfaced that the Rockets would like him back. I simply ask one thing: why?

Why do the Rockets need to upgrade from Beverley? Are their title aspirations so far gone with Beverley manning the point as to handicap their odds at victory? Hardly. The Celtics won a championship with Rajon Rondo, the Heat won titles with Norris Cole at the point, and the Lakers won titles with Derrick Fisher. Beverley is, at the very least, comparable to Fisher and Cole.

Does Beverley’s game lack such a dimension as to prevent the Rockets from actually being able to win games? Probably not. Houston’s currently 4th in the Western Conference and on pace to win 56 games. You have to go back to 1996-1997 to top that kind of record in Houston. To contextualize that, the last time the Rockets were this good, everyone was doing The Macarena, Bone Thugs-N-Harmony offered to meet you at Tha Crossroads, and Alanis Morisette butchered the definition of irony.

So, the Rockets are on pace to post their best season since flannel left the mainstream acceptance yet Patrick Beverley needs to be replaced. Well, if Beverley is such a handicap Dragic has to be demonstrably better in critical areas, right?

Let’s consider the construction of the team. Harden largely plays the role of point guard and scoring guard in Houston. Houston and Phoenix play a similar pace (95.8 possessions per game in Phoenix, 96.7 in Houston). Dragic plays a similar role to Harden in Phoenix only without the same efficiency. If we’re thinking specifically what the Rockets need at point guard, they need to defend and they need to hit the three.

Player one shoots the three at 35% and posts a defensive rating identical to his offensive rating (111). Player 2 shoots the three at 37% and posts a 105 defensive rating and 109 offensive rating. Player 2 posts his stats with a usage that is 5% lower than player 1 all while playing 2 minutes less per game. If you’re struggling to see too much of a difference between these two players outside of one being the better defender, you’re not alone.

Dragic is player 1 and produces a total of 16 points, 4 assists, and 1 steal per game while turning the ball over 2 times per game. Beverley produces 11 points, 3 assists, and 1 steal a game while turning the ball over once per game. The 6-point swing in defensive rating and the additional turnover difference more than makes up the point production gap between the two. The diminished usage and minutes need on Beverley also mean he’s making more of an impact with less strain than Dragic. Couple all of this with Beverley being two years younger than Dragic and the logic behind picking up the point guard makes less sense. What little sense made is demolished when you consider the contract price of each player.

Feb 23, 2014; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Houston Rockets point guard Patrick Beverley (2) steals a pass intended for Phoenix Suns shooting guard Goran Dragic (1) during the first half at US Airways Center. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

We’re not even considering fit, either. Dragic is a primary ball handler and scorer. Houston has one of those. Only Houston’s is far superior to what Dragic brings. You may have heard of James Harden. I’m not sure though. Beverley’s job in Houston is to hit threes, defend opposing guards, and push tempo. Dragic’s job in Phoenix is to score. The question you’re stuck asking yourself, however, is whether Dragic is a significant enough upgrade over Beverley to justify paying out or trading off whatever he’ll cost.

On a team that is currently starting Joey Dorsey at center with their best big man prospect currently in Rio Grande Valley, do the Rockets really have the luxury of picking up Dragic? How many titles did Phoenix win as a run-and-gun small ball team? Sure, the Rockets have acquired Corey Brewer and Josh Smith (Which now appear to be steals in overall value) to help shore up playstyles and defensive needs, but is their work done?

Donatas Motiejunas has stunned the basketball world with his improvement and Terrence Jones is back but is Houston viable at the center position right now? Dwight Howard is out 4-6 weeks and Houston fans are fawning over a scoring point guard. Sure, Dragic would be more fun to watch than Beverley but he wouldn’t actually be more effective. Indeed, the numbers suggest he’d actually be a problem.

Goran Dragic Shouldn’t Be A Houston Rocket

By Brandon Davis | Feb 17, 2015