Rajon Rondo to the Mavericks: Impact on Houston

First, let’s be frank, Dallas panicked. They did. Brandan Wright was a large part of what the Mavericks did and a critical part of the Mavericks bench (Responsible for a 26.1 PER, by the way), Jameer Nelson spaces the floor, and Jae Crowder was filler. Rajon Rondo’s last full season was the 2011-2012 lockout shortened season where he played 53 games. Since then to now, Rondo has played enough games to chock up to a full NBA season with two NBA playoff series under him. All things considered though, the Mavericks improved their team with this deal.

Rondo’s assist totals are up to roughly 11 per game while keeping his assist to turnover ratio down to 3.16 (That’s 3 assists per before he turns it over), his best totals since 2011-2012. Additionally, Rondo is posting his best rebounding totals in his career while also posting his lowest point totals on his career. The troublesome part of the Mavericks’ acquisition of the point guard, though, is what does Rondo do to improve the team’s weaknesses?

The Mavericks are an elite offensive unit. Nobody in Houston can deny that. An elite offensive unit that the Rockets beat short-handed, but elite nonetheless. Now, Rondo was a marquee defender for the Celtics during their big three era. Unfortunately, since then injuries, disillusionment, and a weakening roster around him lead to lower defensive ratings since the 2011-2012 campaign. Rondo’s defensive rating, on average since injury, is 104.3, 3.3 points per 100 possessions up on his 101 career average.

Warning: Stats Nerd Alert

For reference, Rondo’s impact on a team’s offense is actually to bog it down by about 1.1 points per 100 possessions. Offset against his defensive contribution, Rondo earned your team +.6 points per 100 possessions. The Mavericks play at a pace of roughly 93.9 possessions per game, which means Rondo’s .6 differential won’t even be fully realized.

Nov 24, 2014; Dallas, TX, USA; Dallas Mavericks forward

Brandan Wright

(34) dunks the ball during the second half against the Indiana Pacers at the American Airlines Center. The Pacers defeated the Mavericks 111-100. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Maybe the most damning aspect of this trade is the loss of Brandan Wright. Wright averaged 18.5 minutes per game (As opposed to Rondo’s 31, to be academically honest with you). In that time, however, Wright was responsible for 4.2 additional points of offense generated and 1.8 points saved defensively. We’re looking at a positive differential of +6 points per game due to his contributions. Wright’s defensive rating is 2 points higher than Rondo’s and his offensive rating is a colossal 45 points higher than Rondo. Wright’s 76% true shooting percentage will be sorely missed in Dallas when Rondo’s 42% true shooting shows up.

Now, I’m not knocking the trade for Dallas at all. Indeed, I’ve spent a lot of time talking about Houston’s in-state rival. This is a Rockets-centric write-up in a sense. Houston is near the top of the pecking order in the Southwest division, which means they’re near the top of the pecking order in the NBA. Since last summer, Mark Cuban has been gunning to get one over on Houston. Between Memphis and Houston’s supremacy in the Southwest this year, Dallas had to pull the trigger on something to improve their team to compete.

Dec 2, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Boston Celtics guard Rajon Rondo (9) shoots the ball against the Atlanta Hawks in the fourth quarter at Philips Arena. The Hawks defeated the Celtics 109-105. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

So ask yourself, what kind of team are you modeling yourself to beat when you focus on shoring up your defensive backcourt, attack the opposing team’s 2 guards, and focus on spacing out the floor? Now what kind of team is a bench not that necessary to compete against? See where this is going? The Houston Rockets are a team that you gameplan for by attempting to slow down James Harden, pull Dwight Howard away from the basket with floor spacers, and then just don’t let their bench blow the lead.

The Mavericks trade says a lot about Houston in so far as it emphasizes that the team to beat or plan for (at the very least) sits in East Texas. The Mavericks improved on what they do at an elite level and slightly improved on what they do defensively. The net result is that they’re aiming to slow down players like James Harden and neutralize the impact of a shot-blocker like Dwight Howard. Now, if you’re the Rockets, how do you have to play Dallas?

Rondo is ball dominant and rarely a threat to score from range. Monta Ellis is a more than capable off or on the ball scorer who gambles defensive lanes. Chandler Parsons is a floor stretcher and slasher. Dirk Nowitzki is the quintessential shooting big man and Tyson Chandler is an offensive garbage man and defensive stalwart. The removal of Brandan Wright gives teams a reprieve from perhaps Dallas most imposing threat (A dominant big off the bench to punish opposing team’s wish to rest their players).

The Impact Of The Rajon Rondo Deal; Houston Rockets Must Answer

By Brandon Davis | Dec 19, 2014