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Houston Astros: Team needs to be wary the fate of 1998

By Joe Fernandez

23 Apr 1996: Second baseman Craig Biggio of the Houston Astros looks on during a game against the San Francisco Giants at 3Com Park in San Francisco, California. The Astros won the game, 8-4. Mandatory Credit: Otto Greule /Allsport
23 Apr 1996: Second baseman Craig Biggio of the Houston Astros looks on during a game against the San Francisco Giants at 3Com Park in San Francisco, California. The Astros won the game, 8-4. Mandatory Credit: Otto Greule /Allsport /
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The Houston Astros of 2017 have now become the second team in franchise history to win 100 games with a chance to tie the franchise record of 102 wins in a season.

The Houston Astros are rolling right now and even though last night they didn’t put up double digit runs for the first time in four games, they continue to win. Unfortunately so do the stubbornly stunning Cleveland Indians as they maintain a one game lead despite the Astros going 12-2 in their past 14 games.

But this article is about how this season is eerily reminiscent of another season that seemed like the Astros were on a collision course with their first World Series championship in franchise history. Here are some of the bizarre coincidences between the 1998 team and the one we’re witnessing now.

  1. The trade for Justin Verlander compares to the trade for Randy Johnson. 

While Johnson came over before the non-waiver trade deadline and Verlander came over after the non-waiver deadline, these two trades are otherwise strangely similar.  Both were added the day before the respective deadlines passed with Johnson being acquired on July 31st whereas Verlander was acquired August 31st.

Randy Johnson was an aging veteran who was having a so-so season with a 9-10 record and a 4.33 ERA but was coming off a second place Cy Young Award finish the year before. Justin Verlander was having a so-so season as well with a 10-8 record and a 3.82 ERA coming off a second place Cy Young award finish the year before. Both players were 34 years old when they came over and started pitching insanely well after they joined the Astros.

Since joining the Astros, Justin Verlander has gone 5-0 in five starts with a 1.06 ERA and 43 strikeouts in 34 innings pitched. In 1998 after Randy Johnson joined the Astros, he went 10-1 in 11 starts with a 1.28 ERA and 116 strikeouts in 84.1 innings pitched. If you extrapolate Verlander’s numbers with us to equal the 84.1 innings Randy Johnson pitched, Verlander would have 107 strikeouts in 84.1 innings.

Their age, previous year performance, performance before getting to the Astros and afterwards are so oddly equivalent it’s off-putting.

 2. Best player at same position with similar numbers.

in 1998, second baseman Craig Biggio led the Astros with a WAR of 6.5, putting up the following numbers

  • 123 runs, 210 hits, .325 batting average, 51 doubles (led the league in that category) 20 home runs, 88 RBIs and 50 steals

Now here are the numbers for current Astros second baseman Jose Altuve so far this season as he leads the team in WAR at 8.5.

  • 111 runs, 203 hits (league leader), .350 batting average (league leader), 39 doubles, 24 home runs, 81 RBIs and 32 steals.

Now Jose Altuve has two games (most likely a game and a half as he will almost certainly get pulled mid-way through the final game of the year) to add a little to his stats but still, both players are pretty close in production from the same position.

Over 110 runs, over 200 hits, over .300 batting averages, at least 20 home runs each, and RBI totals in the 80s. While Biggio holds the edge in five of the seven categories, the numbers are close in most of them.

And believe it or not, despite Biggio’s dominance that year he finished fifth in MVP voting whereas Altuve is the front runner this season and will almost assuredly finish top three in voting if he doesn’t win.

3. Second best in the league with 100 wins.

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The Astros of 1998 had a record good enough to be the best in the National League at 102 wins. However they finished in second and thus got a tougher challenge facing the 98 win San Diego Padres with a staff ace in Kevin Brown.

This season, the Astros have at least 100 wins but that isn’t good enough to be the best team in the league because of the Indians and as a result we’ll have to play the tougher opponent in the Boston Red Sox with staff ace Chris Sale.

4. Defined by powerhouse offense.

The Houston Astros of 1998 lead the league in runs scored at 874 and RBIs with 818. They were second in the league in hits and batting average at 1,578 and .280 respectively.

The Astros of 2017 lead the league in pretty much every offensive category including runs scored at 886, hits at 1,559, RBIs at 844 and batting average at .283.

5. Endless optimism.

It’s hard not to get swept up in the “This is our year” mentality. I remember in 1998 how inevitable our World Series championship was. Multiple post season heart breaks later and I’ve learned to temper my expectations.

But it still is hard not to get swept up in the most dominant team we’ve had since 1998. Astros fever abounds everywhere. Whether it be on Twitter, Facebook, or the outdated “real life interaction with human beings” system of communication. Astros fans have the most hope they’ve seen since their 2005 run to the National League title.

Next: Five Most Devastating Series in Astros History

It’s been a long road to get to this point. We’ve suffered through the worst teams in franchise and, in all honesty, major league baseball history. During those rough years, Sports Illustrated declared us your 2017 World Series champions. Here’s hoping Sports Illustrated’s prophecy comes true.

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