Ramifications Of Donatas Motiejunas Trade Reversal

Dec 12, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Rockets forward Donatas Motiejunas (20) drives the ball as Los Angeles Lakers forward Nick Young (0) defends during the fourth quarter at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports /

So the Donatas Motiejunas trade is reversed! Are you upset? Did you like the trade when you first heard it?

There were two distinct camps on this trade when it was announced. There are the folks that were so excited to get a 1^st round pick. And there were those that that did not want to see D-Mo traded because WHEN he has played, you could argue there hasn’t been a brighter spot on this roster for the future, outside of James Harden.

Let’s address the first round pick first. It sounds good to get a first round pick because that always feels like “Let’s Make a Deal” for what’s behind door #2. There’s the unknown… the HOPE that your team can catch lightning in a bottle and positively affect the course of the franchise.

But there are big problems with that. It rarely works out, which is why the same teams seem to always be in the lottery. You doubt that? Look at how long the Sixers have been selecting guys in the top three and they are still nowhere near turning things around. In the NBA, you have to have stars to get into a serious playoff conversation and picking even has high as the top three doesn’t even guarantee you that. It can get you some good players, but you still don’t know if you’ll get a real star.

The Pistons, after already picking up Tobias Harris and currently sitting in the 9^th spot in the Eastern conference, are poised to likely either slip into the playoffs or barely miss it. At the moment that draft pick would be #14. And for those of you saying “well there’s a shot they could pick higher if they won the lottery”, the numbers say it’s 98.2% chance the 14^th team, picks 14. And even if the ping pong ball had fallen their way, the Rockets wouldn’t get the pick since it was top 8 protected. So that pick was going to be 13-16, IF the Rockets received it.

On top of that, this is one of the weakest draft classes this off-season than any draft class in recent memory. It has a couple elite guys at the top in LSU’s Ben Simmons, Duke’s Brandon Ingram and few others like Kris Dunn (Providence), Jaylen Brown (Cal) and Buddy Hield (Oklahoma), but after that, this draft class gets pretty thin pretty quickly.

So, the 14^th pick in a weak draft class is better than D-Mo? Very, very, unlikely.

Jan 23, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Phoenix Suns forward Marcus Morris (15) drives to the basket against Houston Rockets forward Donatas Motiejunas (20) at US Airways Center. The Rockets defeated the Suns 113-111. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /

Anyone care for another Marcus Morris? A good college player that is no more than a bench player without a real position in the NBA. Or how about a John Henson, Shabazz Muhammad or T.J. Warren? Do they move the needle at all for your team? Well those are the next players to go 14th following Marcus Morris. One or two decent or potentially decent role players there, yes, but nothing that would change anything about the Rockets situation with any significance.

So maybe you’re thinking, there have been better players taken after 14. And you’d be right, there have been. In 2013 there were roughly two or three better players, but no stars. Same thing happened in 2012, although Draymond Green did go in the 2^nd.

2011, when the Rockets selected Marcus Morris, was the deepest of the recent drafts producing Kawhi Leonard, Tobias Harris, Kenneth Faried, Reggie Jackson, Jimmy Butler and Chandler Parsons all behind Marcus Morris at 14.

The 2011 draft might give you some hope, although the 2016 draft is nowhere as deep, but it should also give you some concern. With all the analytics that Daryl Morey and the Rockets do, and even giving the Rockets credit for taking Chandler Parsons in the 2nd, they still took Marcus Morris ahead of the rest of those guys. That suggests that even in a solidly deep draft class, the NBA draft is still a crapshoot at pick 14 and beyond.

Feb 25, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Rockets forward Donatas Motiejunas (20) shoots the ball during the second quarter against the Los Angeles Clippers at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports /

But you say, “we could lose D-Mo for nothing, he’s a free agent”. Not exactly. Donatas Motiejunas is a restricted free agent so the Rockets can match any offer made to him.

The only way that the Rockets could lose the ability to match an offer on D-Mo would be if they signed two other max deals (Howard and someone else or Howard leaves and they sign two others). In that case, it could push them up against the hard cap and could only be able to offer D-Mo the mid-level exception, without other roster moves.

Raise your hand if your confidence level in signing two other max level players is very high…Yeah, my hand is not up either.

In all likelihood they will be able to match any offer made to D-Mo. If Howard leaves, that likely increases chances of D-Mo re-signing.

So what do D-Mo’s back issues do to this situation? That is the most cloudy part of this whole equation. On one hand if there are long term issues, do the Rockets WANT to sign D-Mo to a long term deal? But now most likely, neither will any other team.

That will hurt D-Mo in the pocket book, that’s for sure, and you have to feel bad about that because D-Mo, by everything that the public can see, is a really good, easy going dude and we wish nothing but the best for him. It will almost certainly cost him money this offseason, unless he has a monster finish to the season.

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D-Mo also has the option of accepting his restricted free agent qualifying offer, playing another year with the Rockets to show the Rockets and the NBA that he’s healthy and then become an unrestricted free agent in 2017 or sign an extension with the Rockets prior to the end of the season. Basically, he can recover from this but it will cost him money in the short run.

For the Rockets, this could actually help them retain D-Mo, if they aren’t too concerned with long-term back issues, by putting his price tag in a range that’s easier for the Rockets to swallow.

In the long run all of this doesn’t necessarily end badly for the Rockets or D-Mo.

I would also argue that Daryl Morey didn’t even really want to use that draft pick. What he really wanted was to have something to offer in a trade or sign-and-trade for another star player. That’s a “nice to have” asset, but that’s not going to stop him from getting a star if one is interested in coming. If a player of that caliber is interested, Morey will do whatever he has to do to make it happen or get that team a desired draft pick to facilitate a sign-and-trade.

A side benefit to the trade that I’d hope the Rockets don’t alter with this trade reversal is more playing time for K.J. McDaniels. Although Marcus Thornton has not been the problem with the Rockets, has added more than he’s taken away and he’s not the player I would have removed from the Rockets equation, an added bonus to this trade is more playing time for K.J. McDaniels who can actually defend. This teams needs more defense than anything else right now and McDaniels provides it.