Houston Rockets: Examining This Loss Of A Season
The Houston Rockets felled the mighty Philadelphia 76ers 116-114 to bring Houston’s record to 6-10.
Did that feel gross to read? It should.
James Harden turned in a 14-for-28 performance to net 50 points while shooting 50 percent on threes. Dwight Howard contributed 14 points on 6-of-8 shooting with 13 rebounds. The Rockets gave up 48 percent from the field and 45 percent from the three-point arc to a team that averages 42 percent from the field and 32 percent from beyond the arc. The Sixers, by the way, are 0-17 on the year.
As I said last week, Harden needs to make changes to his game to fit into a more efficient incarnation of himself if we’re going to see any change in the Rockets fortunes on the year. To date, Harden is still trending well below his career averages in field goal percentage and three-point percentage – all while taking more shots per game. Given trends on the season, what we saw from Harden is more likely an aberration than a return to form.
Harden shot 50 percent from the field and 50 percent from three (putting up 12 shots from deep). On the year, Harden shoots nine 3’s with averages of 40 percent from the field and 31 percent from deep. Is it possible that Harden is breaking out of a slump that started the season? I’m not so sure.
Harden is posting his lowest value over replacement player rating since his rookie season and an abominable .4 defensive win shares (-3.8 from last year)
Author’s note: The season isn’t over and that’s when these stats bear out, I know I’m being premature here.
No, the real key to Rockets success is ultimately on the shoulders of Howard; a player so maligned by bad press and his fan base due to the gratitude Rockets fans felt after being gifted Harden. Unfortunately, Harden’s production comes at the overwhelming expense of his supporting crew.
Harden’s gaudy 50 point, eight assist, and nine rebound night came with nine turnovers and saw not a single player post over 15 points. That level of Herculean effort in the stat sheet also came at the cost of 40 minutes on the floor. Howard’s production, meanwhile, was tidy with one turnover in 36 minutes posting his 14 and 13.
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The offense, admittedly, has slowly started sputtering back to life with Patrick Beverley’s return to the starting lineup and Ty Lawson’s role from the bench, an argument I made over a week ago as the right move. There’s only so many shots to go around, and Harden seems determined to take most – if not all – of them.
Funny enough, on the season, the Rockets aren’t far off from last year’s production (44 percent from the field and 35 percent from three) by posting 42 percent from the field and 31 percent from three. The overall impact of pace and the decline of efficiency, however, is responsible for a -6 swing in overall offensive rating.
Defensively, the Rockets have seen a -5 swing in defensive rating, contributing to an overall total -11 swing in point production versus point defense from last year. Upping the pace from last year and emphasizing the slide in production compound this.
Most damning, however, is that the Rockets this year give up a better effective field goal percentage to opponents in addition to all of their other issues. This means opponents get better quality shots and opportunities against this Rockets defense than last year’s.
So, with all of this staring us in the face, what do we do?
Well, the attitudes have to change as much as production. Harden’s numbers are now starting to trend more volume scorer than efficiency scorer. For all the praise I heap upon Howard, his lack of availability and jump in turnover percentage is troubling.
Ariza is clearly showing a decline in his offensive contributions but his defense and his contract more than justifies his presence.
Lawson is adjusting to a bench role and Marcus Thornton, for some unknown reason, is seeing only eight minutes on some nights.
Players have to understand their roles, play to them, and stay within their strengths.
For all the grief Harden received by saying his teammates were role players it set a clear expectation of the team dynamics. We’ve seen the pendulum swing too far this season from that statement.
Harden may be the star but his supporting cast, initially considered to be one of the best in the league, now are featured as background bit players more than anything else.
This change has to start with Harden.
Harden needs to stop stuffing stat sheets and start incorporating his team into the game. Some nights when everything is clicking, go ahead and score 50, on the other 90 percent of nights, he needs to get his team involved. The Rockets saw major success when Harden played within himself – six three’s a game, high true shooting percentage, attacking the basket. The Harden they have now seems enamored with his own breakout and trying too hard to match Stephen Curry’s insane year.
Generally, I’m optimistic about Houston’s chances to turn it around. Unfortunately, with Kevin McHale‘s ouster, Harden’s selfishness, and the confused place of every other player on the roster, I can’t be so sure about those odds.
At 6-10, the Rockets are most likely angling for the 8th seed in the West, at best, and at worst have to consider a significant roster cleaning on the eve of a cap explosion in the NBA.
Ultimately, ego and lack of effort have torpedoed the season. The Rockets are in dire need of some housecleaning if they are going to correct the season.
Only when that happens can the house of Houston rise.
Next: Playing Rockets GM For A Day