Houston Rockets v. Los Angeles Clippers; Round 2 Preview
The Houston Rockets tip off their second round playoff series on Monday. Tip off is at 9:30 PM EST (8:30 PM CST). The Rockets split the season series with the Clippers 2-2 and Houston holds home-court advantage against Los Angeles’ (now) favorite team.
Before heading into this series, we need to take a moment to appreciate the Clippers edging out the Spurs. Houston struggled against the aging juggernaut but the Clippers didn’t beat the defending champs without a cost. The Clippers top 5 in minutes averaged 36.74 minutes per game. Houston’s top 5 in minutes racked up just 31.32 minutes per game. That is a difference of a little over 5 minutes per game.
Los Angeles played an additional game compared to Houston. That means over the course of Los Angeles’ series, their premier producers have already logged 56.74 minutes more than Houston. In the NBA, that’s significant. Chris Paul is already potentially ruled out for game 1.
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On the year, Los Angeles shot the three point shot at 38%, connected at 52% inside the arc, and averaged around 107 points a game. LA’s offense is a robustly efficient 109.8 per 100 possessions and their defense holds at 103 points per 100 possessions with 13 takeaways a game. Comparatively, Houston shoots the three ball at 35%, 51% from inside the arc, at 14 takeaways a game. This game will hinge on who takes control of the ball. Houston and Los Angeles have a 50% (rounded) rebound rate. Houston’s 15 turnovers per game, compared to LA’s 11, could be damning.
Defensively, Houston should be licking its chops. The Rockets force opponents down to 32% three point shooting, 100 points per game, 49% inside the arc, and down to about 44 rebounds a game. The Clippers aren’t slouches, forcing opponents down to 35% from deep, 48% from inside the arc, and allowing opposing teams 43 rebounds a game.
Houston attempts 33 3’s per game and the Clippers give up 24 3’s per game. The Clippers attempt 27 threes per game while the Rockets only allow opponents to take 22. The deep ball is more critical to Houston and the Clippers look to take away nine of those weapons away. The deep ball doesn’t play into Doc Rivers’ plans nearly as much as Houston’s, so it’ll be interesting, to say the least, to see how this will be gameplanned.
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For curiosity, however, the Rockets top six have played 910 minutes together in the playoffs. The Clippers top six have put in 1467 minutes together. That’s a disparity of 557 minutes, nearly 12 games. Does that lead to greater chemistry? Maybe. Does it lead to increased wear and tear? Definitely. Houston is going to rely on that, an aggressive pace, and no alteration to their three-point percentage to seek to get to the Western Conference Finals.
Prediction: Houston in 7.
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