2014-2015 Houston Rockets Season Preview

Oct 24, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Rockets guard

James Harden

(center) is introduced before a game against the San Antonio Spurs at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Rockets finished last season with a 54-28 record and a 4th place finish in the Western Conference. Obviously the playoffs did not go the way they had hope and ended with a 1st round exit against the red-hot Portland Trailblazers. The way that the season ended with Damian Lilliard’s 3-pointer at the buzzer was gut wrenching.

But those kind of loses tend to stick with players and it clearly did with stars Dwight Howard and James Harden, if you listen to their words and observe what they did this summer. With Howard it was the hard core work out regime in the weight room (video here) as well as his workouts with Rockets all-time great Hakeem Olajuwon. By all accounts Howard is 100% healthy and in the best shape since his early 20’s.

James Harden spent the summer as the leader of Team USA and showed those that paid attention, better focus on defense and that he’s still one of the top 5, perhaps top 3 offensive players in the league.

Oct 21, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Houston Rockets guard Trevor Ariza (1) shoots over Miami Heat forward Luol Deng (9) during the first half at American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Much has been made of the Rockets offseason losses of Chandler Parsons, Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin but despite perhaps not choosing a tactful way to say it, Howard and Harden were correct in their comments following the Parsons loss that this team’s success will revolve around Harden and Howard. Certainly they need others to step up, but historically the NBA has mostly been about player mismatches and the Rockets have 2 in most games.

The Rockets did a tremendous job replacing Parsons with Trevor Ariza. Ariza is clearly an upgrade over Parsons defensively and at the 3-point line. And that is exactly what the Rockets need from him. With Ariza, Patrick Beverley and Dwight Howard the Rockets have 3 of 5 starters that are well above average defenders. If Harden picks up his defensive effort just a little and the Rockets get anything out of the 4 position this will be a significantly improved defensive team.

In the offseason, with transactions as well has how the team played in the preseason, the Rockets have given everyone a clue as to what they intend to change this year. We saw a much more intense defensive effort in the preseason. We saw less joking around and smiling. We saw a team that wants to play more physical and with a different defensive intensity.

Oct 7, 2014; Dallas, TX, USA; Dallas Mavericks center Tyson Chandler (6) fights for a rebound against Houston Rockets center Tarik Black (10) at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

In offseason acquisitions the Rockets signed a physical presence in Joey Dorsey and rookie Tarik Black has stepped up and beaten out veteran Jeff Adrien. They brought in Greek player Kostas Papanikolaou, who while not the physical presence of the other 3, certainly has a grit and fearlessness to him. The Rockets also added seasoned veteran Jason Terry who brings veteran championship experience. It remains to be seen if Terry actually adds anything on the court and may be just an expiring contract to trade during the season but in the meantime his impact could be felt in the locker room and on the bench.

This team will be improved defensively. Offense has never been an issue with this group. Those that point out the losses of Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik are over estimating what the team got out of those two guys in the regular season last year. Certainly Lin’s offense and backup at the point and shooting guard must be replaced. But the Rockets do have some talent in young players like Troy Daniels, a dead eyed sharp shooter who hit a huge shot in game 3 of the playoffs (video) after shattering D-league shooting records as a rookie. Isaiah Canaan beat out Ish Smith for the backup point guard spot after lighting up a couple teams late in the preseason and flashed bright at times last year and in the summer league as well. Odds are strong that at least one of the two steps up and replaces that offense lost with Lin.

Omer Asik gave the Rockets very little in the regular season last year. He pouted about the Howard acquisition, then was “injured” then pouted some more before finally starting to play in March after the trade deadline had passed. He played well after that and in the playoffs but had very little impact on the season’s overall record. Donatas Motiejunas, Joey Dorsey and Tarik Black will attempt to replace some of what Asik did but they are no doubt, not the defensive presence that Asik was.

Sep 29, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey poses for a photo during media day at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Those predicting doom and gloom and a first round exit or not even making the playoffs are all are also ignoring the fact that the Rockets are not finished making moves. While it’s difficult to assume a trade, with the aggressiveness of General Manager Daryl Morey and assets to use, it’s nearly a given that the Rockets will make 1 or 2 fairly significant moves before the trade deadline. The Rockets will be keenly interested in how several teams play in these first two months of the season as any veteran on a team slow out of the gate could be a potential target.

The Rockets still have their bi-annual exception of $2.07 million to use to sign a mid-year free agent. They have a guaranteed lottery pick from the Pelicans, assuming that the Pelicans don’t appear on a path to make the playoffs in the west to offer in trade. They also have their own 1st round picks in 2016, 2017 and a slew of 2nd round picks as well as young players Terrence Jones, Donatas Motiejunas among others to offer. They have the expiring contract of Jason Terry and an $8.3 million trade exception from the Jeremy Lin trade to make nearly any deal work financially.

Oct 21, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Houston Rockets center Dwight Howard (12) drives to the basket as Miami Heat forward

Chris Bosh

(1) defends during the first half at American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The Rockets do need someone to step up on their bench, actually at least 2 guys. Like every other team in the league they need their key players to stay healthy. But if Harden and Howard in their 2nd year of playing together have the renewed focus as they appear, there is no reason why this team should not win at least 50 games once again. The level with which the young players step up and the midseason moves will determine how high of a seed they can obtain and what they can do in the playoffs.

The Rockets also need to find out this year if Kevin McHale is the right coach for them. McHale admittedly an all-time great player is well liked by the players. But in stints in Minnesota and now Houston has yet to show that he can take a team and make it better than the sum of it’s parts. He has also struggled to put them in a system on defense that works as a team, instead only relying on Beverley to limit the point guard and Howard or Asik to clean up things in the lane. His substitutions and game adjustments have been lacking as well. The Rockets had hoped to bring in a veteran head coach to be the #1 assistant and help fix the team defense but were unable to, although we will see if former defensive standout and new assistant coach T.R. Dunn can help.

Among national prognosticators we’ve seen predictions anywhere from advancing to the 2nd round of the playoffs to not making the playoffs at all. Those predicting the latter frankly don’t understand the NBA or how good Harden and Howard really are. Barring a significant injury, there is no way this team doesn’t make the playoffs.

Certainly the NBA Western Conference is strong, but it’s also just as likely that a couple teams take a step back this season. With Kevin Durant’s injury the Thunder are a possibility. Blake Griffin’s career year last year and can he repeat that makes the Clippers a possibility to slide a little. The Warriors are the sexy pick to move up, but they were last year as well and finished 6th. What has changed on that team?

How about the Trailblazers who knocked out the Rockets in the playoffs? The Trailblazers were a Jekyl and Hyde team last year, at times looked like the best team, at times didn’t look like a playoff team. And the defending champion Spurs who everyone seems to want to just hand the championship to, are the oldest team in the league and are now another year older. At some point that will catch up with them. Would it really be a surprise if it was this year?