Coming off back-to-back AFC South wins, Houston Texans fans have quickly become accustomed to watching playoff football again. Fortunes change quickly in the NFL, however, and recent postseason appearances don't come close to guaranteeing any in the future. Consider that the last time the Texans won the AFC south in consecutive years (2018 and 2019) was followed by going 4-12 in 2020, 4-13 in 2021 and 3-13-1 in 2022.
But circumstances are different this time, and expectations are high for C.J. Stroud and company in 2025. So let's take a look at the Texans' odds to make the playoffs and analyze where they fit into the potential AFC playoff picture.
Texans Playoff Odds & Predictions 2025
Starting with the betting markets, FanDuel Sportsbook gives the Texans -142 odds to make the playoffs and +116 odds to miss the playoffs. If we cut out the margin the sportsbooks add on to get their cut, this implies a 55.9% chance of making the playoffs. That's right in line with ESPN's projection of 54.3% to make the playoffs.
But is it really fair to say the Texans' playoff chances are only a little better than a coin-flip?
Some important context to start with is that the NFL season tends to be way more random than anyone wants to acknowledge. ESPN only projects five teams for better than a 60% chance at making the playoffs (the Ravens, Eagles, Bills, Chiefs and 49ers). So even if your stance is "of course the Texans will make the playoffs" you shouldn't get too bent out of shape over those odds.
And it's hard not to project the Texans to make the playoffs this year. They're the only team that ranked in even the top half of all teams in PFF's overall grades last season, and little has happened this offseason to change the pecking order. Is Daniel Jones really a big threat to keep Houston out of the playoffs?
The Texans went 5-1 in six games against the rest of the AFC South last year, and a Division Winner spot is their most likely path to the postseason this time around.
The Wild Card race becomes tricky if the Texans don't win their division, though. Playing the entire NFC South and AFC West brings some tough draws, and being a 2024 division winner has them facing the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens.
Prediction: Texans make the playoffs as the AFC South champions for the third straight season.
AFC South Standings and Playoff Odds for 2025-2026 Season
With everyone reset at 0-0 to kick off 2025, let's look at the final AFC South standings from 2024:
- Houston Texans (10-7)
- Indianapolis Colts (8-9)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (4-13)
- Tennessee Titans (3-14)
And the odds to make the playoffs for the four teams in 2025 don't venture very far from those standings:
- Houston Texans (-142)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+154)
- Indianapolis Colts (+205)
- Tennessee Titans (+410)
AFC Playoff Power Rankings
Plenty will change from any preseason power rankings, but here's a first look at how every AFC team's odds to make the playoffs stack up:
- Buffalo Bills (-800)
- Baltimore Ravens (-550)
- Kansas City Chiefs (-370)
- Cincinnati Bengals (-152)
- Houston Texans (-142)
- Denver Broncos (-130)
- Los Angeles Chargers (-110)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+142)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+154)
- New England Patriots (+164)
- Indianapolis Colts (+205)
- Miami Dolphins (+210)
- Las Vegas Raiders (+290)
- Tennessee Titans (+410)
- New York Jets (+490)
- Cleveland Browns (+790)
Houston Texans' Playoff History
The Texans have made the playoffs eight times since they joined the NFL in 2002. Their first appearance didn't come until 2011, meaning they have made the playoffs in eight of the last 14 seasons. All eight of those appearances came as the AFC South champions, and they have never made the playoffs as a Wild Card team.
Their all-time playoff record sits at 6-8, and the Texans have never made it beyond the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. That means they've never had the opportunity to win the AFC Championship or a coveted Super Bowl title.
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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.