Not so very long ago, in 2022, if you had told Browns fans that their favorite player, Nick Chubb, would be playing in Houston in just three short years, they would have laughed in your face. At that time, long-suffering Clevelanders were mentioning Chubb in the same breath as Jim Brown and Leroy Kelly. Even if the Browns stumbled through one disappointing season after another, the silver lining was that they could at least boast a generational talent in Nick Chubb.
Ever since his rookie year when he rushed for 996 yards and 10 touchdowns, Nick Chubb has been the foundation on which the future of the Browns’ franchise and fanbase rested. Chubb went on to dominate in Cleveland, earning four Pro-Bowl selections and 51 rushing TDs.
Things seemed to be going great for Chubb, and his loyal fans were looking forward to many more blissful years with him on their side. That is, until a 2023 Week 2 matchup against the Steelers when tragedy struck. Here, Chubb suffered a gruesome knee injury that sidelined him for the remainder of the season.
When he finally returned to the field midway through the 2024 season, Chubb’s modest numbers were but a shadow of his former self. To make matters worse, Chubb suffered yet another serious injury, this time a broken foot, forcing him out of the Browns’ final three games.
At this low point in his career, the future was looking bleak for Chubb in Cleveland. The Browns drafted two rookie running backs and allowed their fan favorite to seek greener pastures elsewhere.
A Second Chance in the Lone Star State
After a period of intrigue, speculation, and courtship, Nick Chubb finally found a landing place in Houston. Far from the league-topping contracts of his past, Chubb inked a one-year deal worth $2.5 million with a potential hike to $5 million if certain incentives are met. On the Texans’ depth chart, Chubb is currently sitting at the number two position behind Joe Mixon. Rounding out the RB room are Dameon Pierce, Dare Ogunbowale, and Woody Marks.
Pragmatic fans will spot a potential problem straightaway with this crowded roster. Serving as the Robin to Mixon’s Batman this season, it will be near impossible for Chubb to match the production that, in the early stages of his career, made him a household name. Anyone hoping to see him bounce back with a thousand-yard season is likely to be disappointed. Even if Chubb is still somehow physically capable of such a feat, Mixon’s presence ahead of him will make this miracle near impossible.
Sharing Comes at a Cost
Speaking of Mixon, Chubb’s addition to the team creates an additional conflict, which could affect his wallet. It's no secret that Mixon has his eyes set on a lucrative new contract. His current one ends after the 2026 season, which means that he will be wanting to put up the best numbers possible before he and his agent sit down at the negotiation table. With Chubb in the mix, though, this means that Mixon’s chances to prove his worth will be limited, no matter how slightly.
If Chubb does end up shouldering a fair share of the workload, Mixon might find himself out a hefty chunk of change. In Mixon's contract, there's an extra $250,000 with his name on it if he can top 1,100 total yards this season. For reference, he came frustratingly close to this payday last season when he totaled 1,016 yards. If Mixon has to share the stage with Chubb this season, though, it's unlikely that he will be able to pocket this extra quarter mil. This could be a small price to pay if Chubb's addition proves to be what finally takes the Texans over the top.
Fantasy Owners Beware
According to fantasydata.com, Joe Mixon amassed a total of 240.5 fantasy points last season, which comes out to a very respectable 17.2 points per game. This dependable production can be directly linked to his 245 total rushing attempts over the course of the season. Essentially, each time Mixon is handed the ball, he can be expected to tally about one fantasy point.
Nick Chubb’s best season, at least from a fantasy perspective, was in 2020 when he averaged a slightly better 17.4 points per game. Although it would be unrealistic to expect anything close to this sort of production this season, it's safe to say that the Texans didn’t spend millions of dollars for Chubb to collect dust on the bench. Don’t be surprised to see a recovered, rejuvenated, and highly motivated Chubb receive his fair share of opportunities and log a few points of his own.
While this one-two punch is undoubtedly a useful strategy for the Texans, for fantasy owners, though, it creates a dilemma. The workload will be split, albeit unevenly, between these two backs, and so will their fantasy points. As was seen with Chubb and Kareem Hunt in Cleveland, the Texans’ new tandem might see Mixon used as the bell cow and Chubb saved for the goalline, effectively awarding yardage points to the former and scoring points to the latter. Fantasy owners, especially those in single-game formats, will need to think long and hard about which back to hitch their team’s wagon to.
Although fantasy owners may be uneasy and Mixon might have to share the ball more than he did last season, the Texans as a team should have nothing to worry about when it comes to running back production this year. Paired with C.J. Stroud’s explosive air game, Chubb and Mixon can be expected to get the ball across the goal line one way or another. Who knows? Maybe Chubb is the perfect missing piece the Texans have been looking for.