Jalen Green has been a controversial player since entering the NBA as the second-overall pick in 2021. There are many fans of his game due to his explosive athletic ability. There are also many detractors due to his inconsistent shooting and negative impact on the floor. I'd argue that impacting winning is more important than highlight dunks or step-back threes. Therefore, the Rockets clearly should try to get off the Jalen Green investment via trade this offseason.
Jalen Green signed a three-year, $106 million contract extension in October, but following his horrible series against the Warriors, I'd expect the Rockets to shop Green in a trade for an upgrade at guard. Green's contract value of $35 million/year will work salary-wise in a package for a star. Let's dive into why Green deserves to be traded.
The 23-year-old shooting guard has been a remarkably consistent negative in a number of different ways since entering the league. His team has been consistently better with him off the floor compared to when he is on. This season he had a -8.1 net-rating swing, as Houston had a net-rating of +11.2 with him off the court and a +3.0 with him on the floor.
General manager Rafael Stone was explicitly asked about the on/off data in an exit press conference by a reporter on Tuesday. Stone responded, "That's a really flawed question. There's great data that we have and we use. I can make data say whatever I want it to say. We heavily use it, but we're careful." I'd tend to disagree with Stone saying it is flawed, but he clearly isn't going to come out and tank Jalen Green's trade value by saying he is bad. If the Rockets are using any sort of lineup data, they can see a clear multi-year trend showing Green to be a net negative to his team.
When looking at Jalen Green's offensive numbers, it is remarkable how consistent they have been over his four-year NBA career. Green's points per shot attempt each season from his rookie season until his fourth: 110.4, 108.8, 109.2, 109.8. Green's assist-to-usage rate each season: 0.57, 0.60, 0.61, 0.58. Green's TO%: 11.7, 11.3, 11.3, and 11.2. Green's effective field goal percentage: 51.1%, 48.8%, 50.1%, and 51.0%. Green has been consistently inefficient and shown no signs of improvement in any area or metric.
These bad habits unsurprisingly carried into the playoffs, where Jalen Green averaged just 13.3 PPG, 2.9 APG, on 37.2% from the field and 29.5% from the three-point line. Keep in mind, these stats are dramatically inflated by his outlier 38-point Game 2. Outside of Game 2, Green didn't clear 12 points once in the other six games.
This Rockets team has a clear identity now with Sengun and Amen Thompson breaking out this season. Jalen Green is one of the most obvious players who should not be on the roster next season. Acquiring a competent guard to consistently execute next to their two core pieces in Amen/Sengun must be Stone's priority this offseason.