Looking at the Houston Astros, who could face some second-half regression, there are an interesting number of options. So many of Houston's offseason decisions worked perfectly in the first half, with veterans living up to expectations and young pieces stepping up to fill the voids.
This includes infielder Jeremy Peña, who put together an incredible first half of the season before a rib injury forced the shortstop to the IL. It halted what had been an incredible run, one that is bound to face some level of regression when the infielder is able to return from the injury.
It is important to be clear that this is in no way predicting Peña to tank or to fall apart in the second half of the season. Rather, it is pointing out the reality that after that level of injury, it isn't fair to expect the incredible hot streak to continue. Peña is an important piece for the franchise, but he is a career .271 hitter who is far above typical expectations. Call it for what it is, an incredible hot streak that has a franchise player performing above his ability. Peña isn't going to be a .322 hitter the rest of the way, but regress closer to career norms.
Astros Fans Should Set Realistic Expectations for Jeremy Peña's Return
An important piece of this is the understanding that the rib injury has caused such a long layoff. It will take time for the infielder's swing to return. Peña deserves realistic expectations and a level of patience when he is able to return from the injured list.
With this in mind, it is important for the Astros not to be content in the next weeks of the season. There are many areas the team needs to reinforce, starting with additional rotation and outfield depth. Peña isn't a concern for the franchise even if his numbers dip as expected. Returning to career norms still leaves the shortstop as one of the most important franchise cornerstones. This isn't changing after the injury, no matter how long it takes for Peña to get back up to speed.
However, it is important to set realistic expectations and understand the heat the Astros should feel, understanding the current position. It is time to attempt to capitalize on the momentum and make impactful additions ahead of this year's trade deadline.