The Houston Texans host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a battle between the 2024 AFC South and NFC South Champions in Game 1 of a Monday night doubleheader.
Before the teams' first meeting since a thrilling 39-37 Texans comeback in 2023, here are five reasons why Houston will leave Week 2 with its sixth consecutive win over Tampa Bay, with some statistics courtesy of Stathead Football.
1. Texans Are the More Desperate Team
Since 1990, when the NFL expanded its postseason to 12 teams, among the 288 teams that have begun 0-2, a paltry 12.2% have reached the playoffs.
Entering 2024, 32 of the 279 teams that started 0-2 reached the playoffs, per Sports Illustrated. Last season, nine teams (Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts, New York Giants, Jacksonville Jaguars, Carolina Panthers, Los Angeles Rams, Baltimore Ravens, Tennessee Titans) started 0-2, and three (Broncos, Rams, Ravens) made the playoffs.
The Buccaneers are coming off a come-from-behind 23-20 road win over the Atlanta Falcons in Week 1, while the Texans lost 14-9 to the Los Angeles Rams. The expansion of the playoffs to 14 teams in 2020 gives teams a better chance of coming back after digging an early hole, but Houston can't afford to drop its first two games with the rival Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars being better than expected after posting Week 1's two largest margins of victory.
The Texans and Bucs match up decently from a talent perspective, but Houston overwhelmingly needs a win on Monday more. That desperation will be enough to fuel it to its first victory of the 2025 season.
2. QB C.J. Stroud Responds Well to Losses
C.J. Stroud, the No. 2 overall pick of the 2023 NFL draft, has been excellent coming off a loss during his first two seasons, going 9-3 and completing 64.5 percent of his pass attempts for 3,112 yards (8.1 yards per attempt), 19 touchdowns, and four interceptions.
The Texans have averaged 23.4 points per game and scored at least 20 points all but once, which was Christmas 2024's disastrous 31-2 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. But let's pretend that never happened. Stroud rarely leads his team to consecutive losses, and he'll once again steady the Texans against the Bucs.
3. Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield's Primetime Record
Mayfield is 0-6 on primetime as Tampa Bay's quarterback and has lost seven consecutive games, dating back to a 2022 Week 15 loss to the Green Bay Packers while playing for the Los Angeles Rams. In 19 career primetime games, Mayfield is 7-12, completing 61.1% of his passes for 4,270 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions.
The Texans will goad the Bucs' starting quarterback into mistakes, keeping Mayfield winless in night games with the franchise.
4. Texans Defense
Houston made life difficult for the Rams' offense last Sunday, holding the unit to 296 yards, including just 72 yards on 25 rush attempts (2.9 yards per carry).
Per NFL Pro data, the Texans have the fourth-fastest time to pressure (2.42s), and defensive backs allowed an average of 2.6 yards of separation, tied with the Falcons, who limited Mayfield to a 53.1% completion percentage, for the fewest in Week 1. Houston has a secondary capable of matching up with Tampa's offensive artillery and a defensive line that can force Mayfield to get rid of the ball before he wants, a perfect recipe for a Texans win.
5. Texans' Passing Offense
According to Sumer Sports data, the Texans operated out of 11 personnel, which includes one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers, at the league's highest rate in Week 1 (80.7 percent). That could be an issue for the Bucs, who struggled against the personnel grouping against the Falcons, allowing 0.17 expected points added per pass, the 10th-most in the league.
Houston might test rookie slot corner Jacob Parrish, who held up well against the Rams but is still green, plus find favorable matchups for tight end Dalton Schultz, who should factor heavily after Cade Stover suffered a broken foot against Los Angeles. Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts caught seven of his eight targets in Week 1 for 59 yards, including 36 after the catch, according to Pro Football Focus.
As capable as the Tampa Bay defense is, it has enough exploitable weaknesses that Houston can successfully expose.