The Houston Astros are, reportedly, in hot pursuit of free agent pitcher, JA Happ. Here’s why a reunion with Happ would be the perfect fit for the rotation.
A quick rundown before we get down into it. TheHouston Astroscan lose up to three pitchers from their starting rotation last year.Lance McCullershad Tommy John surgery a few weeks ago,Dallas Keuchelrejected his qualifying offer and became an unrestricted free agent, andCharlie Mortonis an unrestricted free agent, though the Astros have made an offer to retain him.
So, that is exactly a 500 inning void the Astros currently have to fill this offseason. The team has been endlessly linked to nearly every pitcher available, both in the free agent market and on the trade block. It’s been full of big names likeNoah SyndergaardandPatrick Corbinor a less renowned name likeMarco Estrada.
Those big names are great but will be costly in either straight cash or in prospects, perhaps both in regards to some names. Targeting a guy like Estrada could be a good, low-cost option but betting on bouncebacks can be a risky game. However, there is one pitcher the Astros have been linked to that could be both cost-effective and a nearly guaranteed solid addition.
That man would be a former member of theHouston Astrosfrom nearly a decade ago,JA Happ. The Astros originally acquired Happ as a part of the deal that saw one of the best Astros pitchers this century go to the Phillies. Happ came over along with then outfielderAnthony GoseandJonathan VillarforRoy Oswalt.
In his first partial season with the franchise, Happ pitched decently in 13 starts, collecting a 3.75 ERA. His first, and only, full season with the Astros did not go as well. He made 28 starts and posted an abysmal 5.35 ERA to go along with a 1.54 WHIP and aslightlybetter, but still bad, 4.69 FIP.
The following season, in 2012, Happ made 18 more starts with better results for the Astros before being traded once again. He was a headliner in a massive 10 player trade between just two teams, theHouston Astrosand the Toronto Blue Jays. The biggest piece of the return for the Astros wasFrancisco Corderobut he only managed 6 games and allowed 11 runs.
Since then, Happ has been traded three more times but has also improved his stock incrementally. He is one of the most reliable and underrated pitchers in the league right now. The past five years, he’s pitched about 850 innings, averaging 170 per season. He’s also averaged a 3.62 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP.
That being said, those numbers are slightly skewed by his 2014 numbers. If we take a look at his past four years, that outlook is even better. He has around a 3.40 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. Those numbers are pretty par for the course as well with a 3.78 FIP.
Now, Happ won’t blow people away with his pitches or strike out a ton of batters. He relies heavily on his low 90s fastball and has a pretty good slider and changeup to back that up. He used to have a curveball but has been weaning himself off of it before essentially ridding himself of it this year.
Happ could very easily fill the same role that Keuchel has filled the past few seasons. He would slot into that number three starter spot and provide solid, consistent innings for the duration of his contract. His ceiling is nowhere near Keuchel’s as he has only appeared on a Cy-Young ballot once and it was as the 6th place finisher but, his floor could be significantly higher.
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Keuchel’s 2015 season was his peak, winning the Cy Young. He then valleyed in 2016 before rising once again in 2017. 2018 had a little bit of both, an extremely poor first half but pitched relatively well in the second half. Happ, on the other hand, is the definition of consistent.
Happ will be 36 to start the season and would be turning 37 by the end of the season. That, coupled with the fact that he’s never been an ace-level pitcher he should be able to be had for about $10 million less than Keuchel on a shorter term deal.
There is no reason to believe that Happ wouldn’t be able to fill the same role Keuchel filled last year just as well. He would provide a lefty arm to break up all of the righties. There are too many reasons to make the this happen and the fit is great. Hopefully, Jeff Luhnow agrees.
For his career, Happ has a 3.90 ERA that matches up with his 4.10 FIP. He also has a 1.31 WHIP to go along with those numbers. Happ has struck out 1,357 batters in 1,530.2 innings, good for eight strikeouts per nine innings. He would be a great addition to theHouston Astrosstaff.
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