Houston Astros: The major reason the ALCS will finish in Houston

The Houston Astros and the Boston Red Sox will resume the ALCS in Houston tonight. Here’s why the ALCS will finish in Houston and never return to Boston.

Game one of the American League a Championship Series saw the Houston Astros fend off the Boston Red Sox early behind stellar work from Justin Verlander. The Astros offense, behind Josh Reddick and Yuli Gurriel, proceeded to blow the game wide open to take the series lead with a 7-2 victory.

The Astros trotted Gerrit Cole out to the mound for game two and the Red Sox jumped on him early. They scored two runs in the first while Cole was able to strand the bases loaded but the Red Sox then tacked on three more in the third. Cole, much like Verlander did in game one, was able to bounce back after a rough inning (twice) and pitched six innings.

Unfortunately, the Houston Astros offense was unable to overcome the early offensive surge from Boston after gaining the lead in the top of the third. The Red Sox left the third inning in the lead and never looked back. The Red Sox tied the series up 1-1 as the ALCS heads to Houston for three more games.

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So far, the Astros have faced off against the Red Sox best two starters in these first two games. Chris Sale took the mound in game one and struggled the majority of his four innings. He surrendered four walks and allowed two runs while throwing 86 pitches. David Price lasted a little longer, 4.2 innings, while allowing four walks, five hits, and four runs in 80 pitches.

So in 8.2 innings of work, the Red Sox aces gave up six runs, nine walks, and five hits. Not a great showing from a guy that could win a Cy Young and a former Cy Young winner. The Astros, led by George Springer and Alex Bregman, were able to get after these guys early and get to the bullpen quickly.

The Red Sox bullpen is, without a doubt, the weakest link of their team. It is headlined by stud closer Craig Kimbrel but they have struggled to successfully bridge the gap between him and the starters. Guys they have relied upon in the past like Joe Kelly and Heath Hembree have not been as sharp this year.

So far, the Houston Astros have been able to get after the Red Sox bullpen in the ALCS. Moreso in game one than in game two but the reliever the Astros got after a little bit in game two was Kimbrel so that is a good sign.

The Red Sox relievers have thrown 170 pitches on top of the 166 Sale and Price have thrown to make it 336 total. Only 96 of those 170 have been for strikes. Call it strategy, call it whatever you want but that’s a lot of mileage through two games for not a ton of pay off in terms of strikes. All of those balls have amounted to 15 walks allowed in two games plus three hit by pitches and countless full counts.

The Astros were always able to capitalize off of those walks and full counts but simply getting that far is a win in and of itself. Being able to get after the starters and relievers alike and make them throw a lot of pitches has been a major key for the Astros and will allow them to capitalize on worn out pitchers in games 3, 4, and 5.

In comparison, Houston Astros pitchers have thrown 278 pitches so far in the ALCS. 180 of those pitches were by Cole and Verlander in 3.1 more innings pitched than the Boston starters. Which means Astros relievers have only thrown 98 pitches compared to the 170 from Red Sox relievers. That is a massive disparity in terms of the pitches thrown by both of these teams.

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Both the Astros and the Red Sox have extremely potent lineups from top to bottom. That’s easily seen by 21 total runs scored by these two teams. So, this series is going to come down to pitching and which pitching staffs are going to be able to stifle the other team’s lineup enough to let their lineup do some damage.

The Astros had the better bullpen in season and that has been on display in this series. The Red Sox have a pretty decent pitching staff but the mileage that they’ve seen so far this season and this series will begin to work against them sooner rather than later.

The amount of work the Astros lineup has forced upon the Red Sox pitching staff, both starters and bullpen, will be the reason the Astros will go on a three-game streak and close out the series on their home turf by Friday. And let’s not forget, the Red Sox have already used one of their starters as a reliever this series.

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Dallas Keuchel will take the mound for the Houston Astros for game three while the Red Sox, at the time of this writing, have yet to announce a starter. The game will start at 4:09 this afternoon. Charlie Morton is on the bump for game four which starts at 7:39 on Wednesday. Verlander is the likely starter for game five for a 7:09 start time on Thursday.

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