Houston Astros: Assessing Gerrit Cole’s start to the 2018 season
By T.A. Mock
When the Houston Astros traded for Gerrit Cole this off season, we all know the team was landing a stud. HOWEVER, I (and potentially everyone else) was not expecting him to come in at the level he has been at so far.
The Houston Astros have three, maybe four, ace quality starters in their rotation. Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, and possibly Lance McCullers, in addition to Cole, all could have been Opening Day starters in this league. If all four were on different teams, this would not have been shocking.
Verlander is a tried and true ace that has been there and done that. Keuchel is one of the most crafty southpaws in the league. McCullers is an up and comer with one of the best, if not the best, curveball in the league.
But, we’re not here to talk about those three.
Cole has shown this year, that he is a bona fide ace and strikeout wizard. The Houston Astros new Cole had this potential, but no one could’ve known it would actualize this quickly. In 2015, Cole finished fourth in Cy Young voting with 2.60 ERA, 1.091 WHIP, and 202 strikeouts. This was peak Cole.
2016 and 2017 were hard on Cole. He had built up expectations in 2015 and was failing to live up to them. Over the course of those two years he had a 4.12 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and an average of 147 strikeouts. While these numbers aren’t terrible, they were far below the near-Cy Young status he had elevated himself to.
Well, now, in 2018, Cole is definitely living up to his former Cy Young expectations. In fact, the way he is pitching right now, he is the most dangerous starter on this roster. Yes, he looks THAT good. Is it sustainable? Probably not this high of a level, but we’ll see what he can do. What’s changed to make Cole this sharp?
What do the numbers say?
First off, let’s take a look at the basic numbers. Cole has allowed one run across 14 innings, good for a 0.64 ERA. Not only that, he has only allowed seven hits and three walks for a 0.714 WHIP. The strikeouts, phew, the strikeouts. Cole’s 22 punch outs are good for a Houston Astros record for a starter in their first two starts. That’s good for a whopping 14.1 K/9 and a 7.33 K/BB.
Cole, currently, is holding opponents to a .146 batting average. This number isn’t totally a fluke either, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) sits at .240. Which would blow his career numbers out of the water, even if it rises a little.
Not only is Cole blowing expectations out of the water, he’s destroying batters in the process. In 2017, Cole had four games of 14+ swinging strikes. In his first start in Arlington, Cole 21 such strikes in seven innings. For his home debut, he had 14 in through four innings and end with 19 total. Cole’s stuff has been absolutely electric. Don’t just take my word for it, take Alex Bregman‘s (per MLB.com).
"I think he looks phenomenal. Stuff is exploding out of his hand. It’s fun to play behind him. He has momentum building and he’s pitching off that and looks great."
What changed?
Similar to what they did with Charlie Morton last, Astros brass, AJ Hinch and Jeff Luhnow, have helped Cole change his approach. Cole’s non-fastball pitches have been effective in the past,
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however he relied more on his phenomenal fastball. He did this for good reason, his fastball consistently rests in the upper 90s, reaching its peak at 99 MPH this season. However, Hinch and Luhnow encouraged Cole to throw his off speed stuff more often.
Thus far, Cole’s fastball rate is at a career low at 54.9%. All the while, his slider and his curveball usage rates are at a career his. We’re talking 25% and and 14.7%, respectively. Interestingly enough, the last time Cole’s slider rates were in the 20s was 2015.
This adjustment in pitch type has resulted in the highest swing percentages of his career. In total, batters are swinging at 49% of the time while only making contact 60% of those swings. These are both career marks. Cole is also getting batters to swing more often at pitches inside and outside the zone. The contact percentages break down to career highs here as well. All in all, Cole already has accumulated .7 WAR, which puts him on pace to get to, or surpass, his career mark of 5.5 in 2015.
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Cole has been lights out, no doubt. He has been the Houston Astros most electric and most dominant pitcher in 2018 so far. His numbers may not be totally sustainable for an entire year, but that is okay. If his numbers dip even a little bit, he’ll still be providing excellent value for his new team. Cole pitching this well makes me confident the Astros rotation will be alright in case Keuchel does depart this off season.
GO ‘STROS! #NEVERSETTLE
**All stats and info courtesy of FanGraphs.com, unless otherwise stated.