Houston Rockets: What life will be like without James Harden

Delving into the numbers

When the Houston Rockets were rolling, winning 14 games in a row and winning 25 of their first 30, Harden was playing at arguably the best level we’ve ever seen. He’s first in points per game and third in assists, sure, but it’s the level of efficiency that is unprecedented for the Beard, almost to the point where this dude is a human cheat code.

His 62.7 true shooting percentage is a career best, even with a career-high usage rating. His shooting numbers across the board have all seen an uptick, including his infamous step-back three, which has become one of the most lethal weapons in the NBA.

The isolation numbers are outrageous! Harden’s points per possession on isos is a league-best 1.29 among players with at least three isos per game (Chris Paul is second at 1.14). He’s scoring on 54 percent of his isos. John Wall is the only other player above 50 percent, and Harden averages four more isos per game than he does.

The point I’m making with all of this is that Harden has been so good this season at an unprecedented and probably unsustainable clip. When the offense breaks down, it’s been comically easy to just rely on a Harden isolation to simply bail you out. The Houston

Rockets no longer have that option.

In the past six games, Harden has still been excellent, averaging 37.5 points per game. But against some of the sounder defensive teams like the Celtics, Wizards and Thunder, the predictable isos are a lot easier to cover down the stretch, resulting in a five-game slide following a 14-game win streak, which had never been done before in the history of the NBA.

With Harden out for an extended period of time and Paul taking over the reins, look for the ball to start moving a lot more. The Rockets are second to last in passes per game at the moment. I anticipate that number to rise in the coming weeks.

Look for a ton of Paul/Capela pick-and-roll scenarios, with Gordon and Anderson’s usage (and overall numbers) both creeping up as well. The offense is unlikely to sustain its NBA-best, and frankly historic, rating but it’s still in good hands.