Houston Astros: Why the team needs to get the best overall record

The Houston Astros have clinched their first division title in 15 years making it a genuinely exciting time to be an Astros fan. However, there’s still important work to do as they are a game and a half behind the red hot Cleveland Indians for the best overall record in the league.

The Houston Astros and their fan base have plenty to be excited about. And it should be celebrated. But their focus needs to be reset quickly because while home field advantage isn’t that big a deal in the MLB playoffs, seeding does matter a great deal.

The Astros not having the number one overall seed was unthinkable at the all-star break. They had a double digit lead on all other teams and were cruising to their first 100 win season since 1998.

Of course when a team wins 22 games in a row, it’s hard to maintain your lead over them, no matter how significant that lead is. As a result, we are now looking up at the Cleveland Indians in the standings.

And while getting to the playoffs healthy and whole is the main concern, acquiring that number one overall seed is extremely important in providing a more secure path to the American League championship series.

Consider the monumental difference between their two choices of first round opponents if the playoffs were to end today. One option is either the New York Yankees or Minnesota Twins after burning their ace in a one game wild card with home field advantage. The other option is facing the Boston Red Sox’ Chris Sale twice in a five game series.

The choice is no choice at all. Whoever grabs that number one seed will have a much easier path to the American League Championship series and, assuming the one seeded team’s series is as easy as expected against whoever the depleted wild card team is, it gives them a chance to set up their rotation for the ALCS.

Whoever grabs that number one seed will have a much easier path to the American League Championship series and…it gives them a chance to set up their rotation for the ALCS.

All of this is hypothetical of course. But these wild card teams are not nearly as threatening as say, the Chicago Cubs of 2015. That team had multiple aces and were good enough to be a division winner as they were in third place in a division with 97 wins, a total normally good enough to be a division winner and sometimes the best team in the league.

This year however, the difference between the one and two seed in the American League playoffs means a great deal. The Red Sox can win two games automatically with Chris Sale and Craig Kimbrel closing it out. A scary prospect in a five game series.

While the Astros have the starting pitching to compete with the Red Sox in Dallas Keuchel, Justin Verlander and (hopefully) Lance McCullers Jr., our bullpen is vastly inferior. Getting to go up against a weaker opponent in the New York Yankees or Minnesota Twins or whoever else who also burns through their ace (none of which are on the level of the ace the Red Sox have going in game one and potentially game four if not five) in a one game wild card is going to make things a lot easier.

Now none of this is to say that you’re guaranteed to win if you get the number one overall seed. The baseball playoffs are more of a crap shoot than any other post season. But this year with the potential matchups in October, there’s not a wild card team that looks scary like the way the Colorado Rockies of 2007 or the Houston Astros of 2004 or 2005 did.

Home field advantage is not what’s important. Teams win as road teams all the time in baseball’s postseason. Just as recently as 2014 we saw two wild card teams go head to head in the World series between the Kansas City Royals and the San Francisco Giants. What does matter though is how you match up against a team and having the time to set your rotation up for the following series should you win.

The Red Sox can win two games automatically with Chris Sale and Craig Kimbrel closing it out. A scary prospect in a five game series.

If one team sweeps in the first round and the other has to go through a grueling five game series, potentially burning their number one and two starters in the process, that makes the league championship series all the more difficult to win.

Just look at our own history with this in the 2004 NLCS where Brandon Backe and Pete Munro started games one, two, five and six while the Astros had to wait until game three to start the NL Cy Young Award Winner Roger Clemens and Roy Oswalt got only one start in the series because of the Astros playing a full five games against the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS prior.

While home field advantage is nice, matchups matter more. We saw that in last year’s World Series where the Chicago Cubs were better on the road where they could use the designated hitter spot to put Kyle Schwarber and make their lineup more deadly without sacrificing a defensive spot putting him on the field where he would be a liability.

And aces matter more than anything in terms of winning a series. Madison Bumgarner basically willed the 2014 San Francisco Giants to a world series championship in 2014. One pitcher who is straight on fire can turn an entire series by himself.

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Chris Sale is that good. No offense to Dallas Keuchel or Justin Verlander, but this season Sale is better than both. He’s second in pretty much every pitching category in the American League and first in strikeouts, innings pitched and strikeouts per nine innings. While we have better depth (though some would debate that as well), a guy like Sale can win two games on his own.

That’s a scary prospect and that’s why we need that number one overall seed so bad. The potential wild card opponents that could be faced do not have a starter who can control a series a la Kevin Brown did against our 1998 power house Astros team that ended their season on a whimper after winning the most games in franchise history.

It’s imperative to not let that happen again, and the best way to avoid that early exit is to fight for the spot in the post season that will give you the weaker opponent. No matter who wins that one game wild card, there’s no doubt that whether it’s the New York Yankees, Minnesota Twins or Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, we have an exponentially better chance of advancing against one of those three than a rotation led by Chris Sale.

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The Houston Astros need this one seed. And they need the Indians to lose in order to overtake them, but in the meantime they have to keep pushing and not get complacent just because they’ve locked up a playoff spot. Seeding, not home field advantage, is why we need that one spot. Here’s hoping we’re the one’s holding it before season’s end.

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