Houston Astros: Prospect cost just right for Justin Verlander

The Houston Astros traded away Franklin Perez, Daz Cameron and Jake Rogers to the Detroit Tigers for the services of Justin Verlander. The Tigers will also pay $8 million a year of Verlander’s remaining contract.

The Houston Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow has been reported to be a bit too enamored with his prospects when it comes to making deals. But the Tigers and Astros got this one right.

When looking at how the market shook down, whether it be what seemed like the overpaying of Jose Quintana with the Chicago Cubs giving away their number one and number two overall prospects, or the underpaying the New York Yankees made to acquire Sonny Gray with only one top 100 prospect (Ranked number 77 on mlb.com), the Astros and Tigers deal seems to be fair value.

The Astros are taking on an exorbitant contract that the Tigers offered to offset the cost of in order to get higher level talent in return in the trade. Given Verlander’s recent performance, but also advanced age alongside his large contract, the Astros giving up their number three (number 46 prospect overall), number nine and number 11 prospects are a fair trade.

While Verlander’s age is cause for concern on how long he can remain effective, that’s the same roll of the dice the Tigers are taking on three prospects who are two single-A players and a pitcher who has only six starts in double-A. Daz Cameron especially is a leap of faith given his minor league struggles (though he has turned it around in the second half of this season) but his pedigree and background as son of former major leaguer Mike Cameron are what the Tigers are banking on.

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Because of these prospects’ low level of development but high yield of reward if they live up to the potential that scouts see physically and skill set wise in them, that offsets the most likely diminishing returns of Verlander’s performance with each year added to his arm, but his immediate impact for our team is worth those high risk high reward prospects.

The lower on the chain a prospect is, the scarier they are to take a chance on. But the Astros didn’t have to give up any immediate impact makers. Didn’t have to trade Joe Musgrove or Francis Martes or Derek Fisher. And the Astros held onto their prized prospects of Kyle Tucker and Forrest Whitley.

At the end of the day, whatever Franklin Perez and Daz Cameron become we can live without for the next few years. We are in win now mode. Jake Rogers is the only one that if he works out would be frustrating just because good catchers are hard to find, but again, we’re in win now mode and right now we have Brian McCann. We’ll worry about catchers when Brian McCann is a free agent.

Next: Verlander addition better late than never

In the meantime, the Astros seem to have made a deal that helps us in the immediate and doesn’t deplete our farm system. That’s the best of both worlds. And you can’t ask for more than that in a trade.

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