Houston Rockets: Why Daryl Morey ball needs an adjustment

The Houston Rockets have been at the forefront of the advanced analytics movement in basketball with General Manager Daryl Morey leading the charge. According to Morey, there are three shots you want in a basketball game. Free throws, three pointers, and points in the paint.

When the Houston Rockets were playing against the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference Semi-Finals this year, the Spurs made an adjustment knowing full well what the Rockets like to do. And that adjustment stopped the Rockets as the Spurs put their hands up and made sure to never foul the Rockets.

As a result, the Rockets drove straight into the teeth of LaMarcus Aldridge and Pau Gasol and the Rockets didn’t know what to do when no one was reaching in. The Spurs defense was played perfectly as they made sure that the Rockets would be challenged on points in the paint, wouldn’t get the easiest shots which are the uncontested ones at the stripe, and lived with the Rockets fluctuating three point percentage.

The Spurs forced the Rockets to rely on the least reliable of the three types of shots Morey wants, as shooters can go cold from the outside. And that is evidenced by the three point percentages of the Rockets determining their series wins and losses against the Spurs:

Game One- Rockets shoot 22/50. 44% from the three point line. They win.
Game Two- Rockets shoot 11/34. 32% from the three point line. They lose.
Game Three- Rockets shoot 12/39. 31% from the three point line. They lose.
Game Four- Rockets shoot 19/43. 44% from the three point line. They win.
Game Five- Rockets shoot 16/48. 33% from the three point line. They lose.
Game Six- Rockets shoot 13/40. 33% from the three point line. They lose.

Six game total- 93/254. 37% from three point line. Series loss.

The only games the Rockets won in this series are when they shot over 40 percent. A tough feat to repeat on a regular basis. However this 40 percent threshold determining wins wasn’t the case in their previous series against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Quite the contrary

Let’s look at the Rockets three point shooting in that series:

Game One- Rockets shoot 10/33. 33% from the three point line. They win.
Game Two- Rockets shoot 11/29. 38% from the three point line. They win.
Game Three- Rockets shoot 10/35. 28% from the three point line. They lose.
Game Four- Rockets shoot 11/35. 31% from the three point line. They win.
Game Five- Rockets shoot 6/37. 16% from the three point line. They win.

Five game total- 48/169. 28% from the three point line. Series win.

Look at that disparity. In four of the five games against the Thunder, the Rockets had an equal or lower three point shooting percentage than they did against the Spurs. The game the Rockets made the least amount of three pointers against the Spurs was the most they had against the Thunder.

So how is this possible that the series turned out so differently? The Rockets made nearly double the amount of three pointers against the Spurs as they did against the Thunder with only one extra game played and shot nine percent better from the three point line. Yet one series they won four games to one with inferior three point shooting to the series they lost four to two.

The difference was free throws. Here’s a side by side comparison of the series in the free throw department:

Against the Spurs

Game One- Rockets shoot 24/27. 89% from the free throw line. They win.
Game Two- Rockets shoot 11/15. 73% from the free throw line. They lose.
Game Three- Rockets shoot 16/18. 89% from the free throw line. They lose.
Game Four- Rockets shoot 6/10. 60% from the free throw line. They win.
Game Five- Rockets shoot 15/21. 71% from the free throw line. They lose.
Game Six- Rockets shoot 18/25. 72% from the free throw line. They lose.

Six game total-90/116 78% from the free throw line. Series loss.

Against the Thunder

Game One- Rockets shoot 18/26. 69% from the free throw line. They win.
Game Two- Rockets shoot 28/37. 76% from the free throw line. They win.
Game Three- Rockets shoot 27/33. 81% from the free throw line. They lose.
Game Four-Rockets shoot 28/33. 84% from the free throw line. They win.
Game Five- Rockets shoot 33/39. 89% from the free throw line. They win.

Five game total- 134/168 for 80% from the free throw line. Series win.

The disparity here is clear. While the percentages are almost identical the Rockets made 44 more points off of free throws than they did against the Spurs. Only once did they make more free throws in a game against the Spurs (Unsurprisingly that game one drubbing) than they did against the Thunder. The Spurs were able to take away an entire third of the shots Morey ball relies on to be effective.

At some point, the uncontested mid-range has to be more effective than the contested attempt in the paint.

And this is exactly why Morey ball needs an update. Doug Collins made a great point during the Spurs series about how the Rockets were passing up wide open 15-18 foot jump shots (A big no-no in Daryl Morey’s book as we know) to contested points in the paint and a chance at free throws making contact. Only the Spurs kept their hands up and left the Rockets befuddled as what to do if they weren’t getting fouled.

At some point, the uncontested mid-range has to be more effective than the contested attempt in the paint. These are professional basketball players. They can hit that shot if they’re open. If a team is crowding the lane and not fouling, they are making it so you HAVE to shoot well from three, and as you can see from the stats above, that is just too risky with how much your three point shooting can fluctuate due to the difficulty of the shot.

In the regular season this won’t matter as teams won’t be able to prepare as ardently for the Rockets as they would in a seven game series. But in a seven game series, it is almost unquestionable that teams will look at what the Spurs did and utilize that to their advantage.

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The open mid-range jumper needs to be added to the core shots that make Morey ball what it is. Because if teams start clumping towards the lane and keeping their hands up, the Rockets will have to rely on the unreliable three point shot.

Some nights they’ll be hot and make over 40 percent. But on the nights that they don’t, they need to be comfortable driving in and pulling up if defenders wait back in the paint knowing that’s the shot the Rockets want.

Without this update, the team will see this strategy utilized against them again in the post season. The addition of the open mid-range jumper needs to be added. No one is saying to take contested mid-range shots a la Dirk Nowitzki or Lamarcus Aldridge or heck the old Hakeem Olajuwon fade away 18 footer.

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But if a player has it open and there are defenders retreating into the lane, the pull up shot has to be embraced. It will force defenders to react and come out which could lead to blow bys to the lane and those open points in the paint Morey loves so much. But without this addition, the Rockets will be a great regular season team that never makes it past the second round. With or without the addition of a Chris Paul or a Carmelo Anthony.

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Houston Rockets: Why Daryl Morey Ball needs an adjustment

By Joe Fernandez | Jul 28, 2017

The Houston Rockets have been at the forefront of the advanced analytics movement in basketball with General Manager Daryl Morey leading the charge. According to Morey, there are three shots you want in a basketball game. Free throws, three pointers, and points in the paint.

More from House of Houston