Houston Astros: Choice between Sonny Gray, Yu Darvish, or standing pat

The Houston Astros have been connected to many trade targets as the MLB trade deadline looms. Two of the biggest targets that have emerged are Sonny Gray of the Oakland A’s and Yu Darvish of the Texas Rangers.

The Houston Astros could use both these starting pitchers to make their rotation even deeper and, of course, more unstoppable come playoff time. You can never have too much starting pitching and even with the amazing improvements Brad Peacock and Mike Fiers have put up in the absence of Colin McHugh and our former Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel this season, a good problem to have would be who to send to the bullpen so Yu Darvish or Sonny Gray can come into the rotation.

An addition to the rotation isn’t needed for the regular season as the Astros starting five, even without Keuchel, have been able to handle the work. But if a season ending injury befalls Lance McCullers Jr. or Keuchel as was the case last year, it would be nice to have the insurance policy of a third ace in our rotation.

Also something to consider as to why a move should be made, and no disrespect to the job Fiers and Peacock have done, but pitching against the  Oakland A’s and Los Angeles Angels regularly (23rd and 26th ranked MLB offenses) is not the same as having only one game in a series against the high powered offenses of the New York Yankees or the Boston Red Sox.

If you had to pick who to have on the mound in a game three, whether it’s Colin McHugh, Charlie Morton, Mike Fiers or Brad Peacock, are any of those pitchers you would rather have start a game three over Yu Darvish or Sonny Gray? Two pitchers with top three Cy Young finishes in their career and five all-star appearances between them. The choice should be clear.

The Astros may stand pat at the deadline as well though because of the teams those two aces belong to. Trading within the division is always a much more difficult prospect. The Astros do have a history of doing it with Oakland, but their previous trades were for a half season of Scott Kazmir and twice dealing Jed Lowrie.

This time if they (the Astros) go after Sonny Gray they will have to give up quite a bit in terms of prospects.

This time if they go after Sonny Gray they will have to give up quite a bit in terms of prospects. A decision that in two years time will have them playing against potential all-stars that form a core in Oakland that we gave them. Of course, we will have Sonny Gray under team control through 2019, but will he be the Sonny Gray of his first three seasons in the league or the last two?

Yu Darvish has proven year to year to be an overall great strikeout artist, but he comes with health concerns and he will only be around for a half season into the post season. His prospect price should be somewhat cheap given that he would be a rental, but then again Aroldis Chapman‘s price as a top tier closer was quite high last season. And we would once again be trading within the division, helping our main competitors get better and making our life in the AL West much more difficult in the years to come.

The decision to stand pat is also a dicey one. While the rotation has maintained in the face of great adversity, what if Keuchel or McCullers Jr. ends up missing the rest of the year. Now you’re down to one ace entering the playoffs and while McHugh, Morton, Fiers and Peacock have been consistent, they are not names that inspire confidence in a must win game nor filling out the back of a playoff rotation.

While the rotation has maintained in the face of great adversity, what if (Dallas) Keuchel or (Lance) McCullers Jr. ends up missing the rest of the year.

The consequences are clear for each choice. Stand pat and continue as you have all season and cruise to a number one seed in the American League, but knowing full well the health risks of your best pitchers over the past two seasons and should anything befall them you must feel confident enough in that back of the rotation to step up in a playoff situation. BUT you get to keep your top prospects and see where you stand next year regardless of how this season turns out.

Trade for Darvish, and give up a decent package of your prospects to a division rival for a rental player who leaves for free agency in November, but up your chances in the playoffs with a great strikeout pitcher who adds depth in case of injury.

Or trade for Gray, and give up a large package of prospects that would make a division rival better in a hurry, but keep control of Gray who helps you not just this season but next year and 2019 as well.

I’m a big fan of risk aversion, and I say the best choice is the compromise of trading for Darvish. You may have to give up good prospects, but I think Luhnow has the freedom to balk at untouchables like Kyle Tucker and Forrest Whitley but trade anyone else.

He wouldn’t have that luxury going after Gray necessarily given the cheap team control for mulitple years. And if Gray suffers some injury plagued or ineffective seasons with us, we just made the A’s a potentially viable competitor in the near future not getting what we wanted in return.

And I don’t like standing pat on the flip side of things because given the health concerns we’ve seen from McCullers Jr. and Keuchel over the last couple seasons, I don’t like the idea of leaving the franchise’s best regular season record and best offensive output in jeopardy by not adding some insurance to solidify those World Series chances.

Next: How to deal with Lance McCullers Jr. situation

Darvish is the choice for me given all these factors. It’s an interesting debate though. And one that we’ll know the answer to in six days or sooner. The decision will be one that could make or break the Astros magical 2017 ride.