Houston Astros: Five trades to gauge value of a pitcher in trade market

The Philadelphia Phillies trade Cole Hamles to the Texas Rangers – 2015

The memory of this trade still stings as this rejuvenated a dead in the water Texas Rangers team. At the time of this trade on July 30th the Rangers were eight games behind the Astros in the division race and the trade was seen as a move for the future for when Yu Darvish returned healthy.

Instead it made an immediate difference because the Astros trade for Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers didn’t make us any better and the Rangers leap-frogged the Astros for the division title. The key components of this trade are (stick with me here cause there are a lot):

• Cole Hamels was under contract for $22.5 million dollars per year through 2018 and $20 million dollars in 2019 before hitting free agency in 2020.
• Cole Hamels had three all-star appearances and a great track record in the regular season and an even more impressive resume in the post season with an NLCS MVP award, a World Series MVP award and a World Series trophy at the time of the trade.
• The Phillies also sent over major league reliever Jake Diekman in the trade.
• The Phillies paid $9.5 million dollars of Cole Hamels contract (basically buying out the rest of the money owed to Hamels in 2015.)
• The Phillies received the Texas Rangers number two prospect right handed pitcher Jake Thompson, number five prospect catcher (who was injured at the time) Jorge Alfaro, number 13 prospect outfielder Nick Williams, and two other right handed pitchers not in the Rangers top 30 at the time but were at triple A and ready to contribute Jerad Eickhoff and Alec Asher.
• The Phillies also took on the $33 million dollar contract of Matt Harrison who was owed $14 million a year for the next two years.

So this one has a ton of moving parts as you can see.  Let’s break all this down first to make it easier to understand because I’m almost 100 percent certain you didn’t read all these bullet points. So to sum it up.

Cole Hamels was owed a ton of money for control through 2020 and if the Phillies wanted quality prospects back, they were going to have to eat some money. They paid $9.5 million dollars out right to the Rangers and also took on the remainder of Matt Harrison‘s $33 million dollar contract in what was basically a money dump (Matt Harrison never threw a single pitch for the Phillies so this was literally the Phillies paying the Rangers $33 million dollars.)

The reason the Phillies did that was to get quality prospects in return, which they did with the Rangers number two, number five, and number 13 prospects as well as two middling prospects who were at triple-A but could help fill out the Phillies roster in the meantime.

The closest trade comparisons would be Madison Bumgarner or Chris Archer, but for different reasons.

It is really hard to find a comparison for this trade as no pitchers on the market are near the same age and have nowhere near the postseason experience as Hamels, nor does anyone have nearly as massive a contract as Hamels did at that time.

The closest trade comparisons would be Madison Bumgarner or Chris Archer, but for different reasons.

Madison Bumgarner has the comparable career as he is a four time all-star with three World Series trophies and has the same hardware as Hamels with an NLCS MVP award alongside a World Series MVP award. The Astros would only get Madison Bumgarner for two and a half years whereas the Rangers got Cole Hamels midway through 2015 through 2020, so we wouldn’t get his services for nearly as long.

And while Cole Hamels contract was way more exorbinant, the Phillies did take on $44 million dollars (basically) which made him cost closer to $52 million dollars over the next four years, putting him right around $13 million dollars a year. Madison Bumgarner is making $12.5 million dollars a year over the next two years, so this is actually a real close comparison.

The differences are that the Giants have explicitly said they wouldn’t trade Bumgarner, and Bumgarner is coming off an injury, whereas when the Rangers traded for Cole Hamels he was coming off throwing a no-hitter against the Chicago Cubs.

So what about trading for Chris Archer?

The issue is teams aren’t looking to sell when they are in the playoff hunt, which the Tampa Bay Rays very much are in as they are a game out of the second wild card spot at the moment. Chris Archer doesn’t compare well with Hamels anyhow as he has one all-star appearance and has faced six total batters in his post season career.

However both the Rays and the Giants have different organizational needs in their respective farm systems and therefore want different things.

The most comparable thing Chris Archer has with Hamels is team control for four and a half years. And we’re talking CHEAP control with him not making more than $10 million dollars in any of those years except the final one where he makes $11 million dollars. And Archer is younger than Hamels at 28 years old whereas Hamels was 30 at the time of his trade.

If the Astros want to pry either pitcher away, it will almost certainly take take number one prospect Francis Martes. They would probably have to part with major league talent too, and Joe Musgrove could be that major league piece. I can’t see the Astros going as far as trading Alex Bregman considering he is now a major contributor to the Astros championship aspirations.

Perhaps Joe Musgrove, number one prospect Francis Martes, and number four prospect Derek Fisher. Then perhaps A.J. Reed or number 13 prospect J.D. Davis and a lower level prospect to complete the package.

However both the Rays and the Giants have different organizational needs in their respective farm systems and therefore want different things. The Giants will be looking for pitching as six of the top seven prospects for the Giants are position players, four of which are outfielders AND they just called up number 17 prospect Austin Slater who is hitting well as their starter in left field. They wouldn’t necessarily want or need Derek Fisher so pitching would have to be sent over.

The most comparable thing Chris Archer has with Hamels is team control for four and a half years.

The Rays are a team that has suddenly found some offense with the explosive performances this year of Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison and Steven Souza Jr. They do have top tier pitching prospects ready to help at the major league level should they fall out of the playoff race and sell Chris Archer.

But what it would cost would have to be Musgrove, Martes, Derek Fisher, Teoscar Hernandez or J.D. Davis and then maybe Colin Moran or Jason Martin to close out the deal. Yes, it will be that expensive for four and a half years of under $10 million dollar control for a 27 year old starter who is fourth in the major leagues with 139 strikeouts in 116.1 innings pitched from a team in the playoff race.

These will be pricey acquisitions but even more so they are unlikely acquisitions considering the health of Madison Bumgarner paired with the stance of the Giants front office on trading him. And Chris Archer won’t be sold while the team is in the playoff hunt and will cost more than any other starter on the market.

So what’s our final option?