Houston Astros: Five trades to gauge value of a pitcher in trade market

The Chicago White Sox trade Chris Sale to Boston Red Sox- 2016

This past off-season the White Sox reaped in a giant haul of amazing prospects in exchange for sending the services of “cut-up” starting pitcher Chris Sale. The key components of this trade:

• Chris Sale has an amazing track record as a starter in the regular season with five all-star appearances and a strikeout title in 2015 but no post season experience.
• He is under team control for three seasons for $12 million dollars this year, $12.5 million dollars next year and $13.5 million dollars a year in 2019 before hitting free agency in 2020 per baseball-reference.com
• The Red Sox sent over their number one prospect who was also the number one prospect in all of baseball (the first time in 25 years where the overall number one prospect got traded) infielder Yoan Moncada, power pitcher number five prospect Michael Kopech, number eight prospect outfielder Luis Alexander Basabe, and number 28 prospect right handed pitcher Victor Diaz.

This one is a biggie. Especially if the Astros trade for Jose Quintana with the same front office that traded Sale. That would probably be a comparable trade for Chris Sale although Chris Archer would be more comparable. However Archer isn’t currently on the trade block since the Tampa Bay Rays are still in the hunt for a playoff spot a game out of the wild card race at the time of this writing.

If the Astros chase after Quintana it helps to know the value of Chris Sale to the front office and it must be known that Quintana does not have nearly the same track record as Chris Sale and therefore should not cost as much (The White Sox, considering they didn’t get major league talent in return for Chris Sale certainly won’t be getting major league talent for Quintana now.)

Based on the Chris Sale trade, the unfortunate thing for the Astros is the inability to trade their number three prospect David Paulino who was lost to an 80 game PED suspension. This gives us less flexibility to mix and match packages.

,,,the unfortunate thing for the Astros is the inability to trade their number three prospect David Paulino who was lost to an 80 game PED suspension.

Jose Quintana doesn’t have the same strikeout prowess as Chris Sale, but he’s thrown at least 200 innings four seasons in a row and the highest ERA he’s posted in those four years is 3.51 (the first of the four years) and his lowest ERA was last season at 3.20, so he is quite consistent and reliable.

His off year this year could help give the Astros a little wiggle room at the negotiation table, but most likely either number two prospect Kyle Tucker or number four prospect Derek Fisher are gone.

Number six prospect Franklin Perez could also be involved in this trade as with the amount of major league ready talent the White Sox have infused into their team with their recent trades, it  gives them the lee-way to go after a young high risk high reward prospect.

If the Astros part with Derek Fisher the White Sox could put him in center field right away as that is where Fisher has played most of his minor league career. The team could then part with a mid-teens prospect and then a prospect in the 20’s range of their top 30 to complete the package.

Considering Kopech and Lucas Gioloto (Who came over from the Washington Nationals in the Adam Eaton trade) could come up as soon as the end of this year if not sooner, the White Sox can take a flyer on younger high upside players.

The injury to Jandel Gustave also hurts as he could be one of those lower end but major league ready prospects to trade.

The injury to Jandel Gustave also hurts as he could be one of those lower end but major league ready prospects to trade.  For Quintana, if the Astros lose number four prospect Derek Fisher, number six prospect Franklin Perez, and perhaps number 16 prospect lefty pitcher Cionel Perez along with number 25 prospect with Major League experience Brady Rodgers that could do the trick.

Keep in mind the cheap control for multiple years of Quintana also makes his price tag go up just like Chris Sale’s went up because of his cheap contract. Quintana is held onto for even cheaper and longer than Sale as next year he makes a little under $9 million dollars and then $10.5 million dollars for 2019 and 2020 before leaving for free agency in 2021.

Moving on…