Houston Astros: Five trades to gauge value of a pitcher in trade market

Oakland A’s trade Scott Kazmir to the Houston Astros – 2015

The four key components of this trade:

• Scott Kazmir was having a career year but had a bad injury history and was out of baseball for two full years before Cleveland signed him on a lark in 2013 and he turned his career around.
• He had struggled in the second half of the seasons of 2013 and 2014 leading to questions marks about his ability to pitch well for a full season
• He was a free agent going into the off-season so the Astros would only have him for half a season.
• The Astros traded away number 19 pitching prospect Daniel Mengden and number 22 prospect catcher Jacob Knottingham per MLB.com rankings in 2015.

This is interesting value here. Especially when you look at the aforementioned trades for relievers above. Aroldis Chapman, while he was the best closer in baseball, was still after all a reliever. Yet he netted four total prospects, two of which were top five prospects for a half season of his services.

Jose Veras netted back a top five prospect and then a player to be named later. And he was only around for a half season and was a low level closer.

This leads me to believe that Scott Kazmir’s questionable past, despite the fact that he was posting a a 2.38 ERA at the time of the trade, obviously must have affected his value in the market as the Astros only had to trade from the bottom end of their farm system.

A comparable trade the Astros could make this year would be for Kansas City Royals starter Jason Vargas. Vargas is a left handed starter who in five of the 13 seasons in his career where he made 24 starts or more, the lowest ERA he posted in a season was 3.71. He also underwent Tommy John surgery last year and has a spotty history with injuries. This year though he is pitching phenomenally as he has posted 2.62 ERA in 17 starts.

The similarities to Kazmir in 2015 continue to get even more eerie as Vargas’ strikeout numbers are waaaaay low, with 78 strikeouts in 106.1 IP.  In 2015 Scott Kazmir at the time of his trade had struck out a more reasonable 101 batters in a 109.1 IP but finished the season with 155 K’s in 183 IP.

A comparable trade the Astros could make this year would be for Kansas City Royals starter Jason Vargas.

So what would it take to pry Vargas away from the Royals considering he is a year removed from Tommy John surgery and has a spotty track record up until this year? Considering the Royals will most likely lose at least one if not more of the trio that is Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas to free agency next year, they would want offense back in return.

A.J. Reed would be an interesting thought as a trade piece as he has major league experience (albeit terrible numbers in his short time in the show) and isn’t having the greatest season in the minor leagues at the moment. Colin Moran could certainly be a possibility as he is ranked as our number 19 prospect and is playing in the Triple-A all-star game this year.

I have a feeling the Royals would potentially want top 10 talent and wouldn’t be surprised if the Astros haggled and number eight prospect Ramon Laureano was sent over as he fits the Kansas City mold of contact hitter who is solid defensively.

The question marks around Vargas are scary though and his chance of injury or returning to what he has been over his twelve year career could give pause. I think Laureano, Moran and a supplementary low level prospect would be enough to get Vargas.

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