New York Yankees tradeAroldis Chapmanto Chicago Cubs – 2016
Here are the two key components of this trade:
- The Cubs were trading for a half season ofAroldis Chapmanas he was a free agent in the coming year.
- They traded away versatile bullpen/spot starterAdam Warren, the number one prospect and number five prospect in their farm system at the timeaccording to MLB.comshortstopGleyber Torresand outfielderBilly McKinney, and an additonal minor leaguerRashad Crawfordwho was not listed on Chicago’s top 30 at the time of the trade.
Now there’s no one near the level of Chapman’s stature available on the trade market today as he is by far and away the best closer in baseball. The Astros are also on the look more for a left handed specialist than a closer, but this trade will help gauge the value for a left handed reliever in the market that can pitch well.
If the Astros are trying to acquire left handed relievers the likes of Chapman, the closest comparisons would beTony Watsonof the Pittsburgh Pirates (who has struggled of late, but has already been linked to the Astros a little this season in trade talks),Brad Handof the San Diego Padres who is currently their set-up man, andJustin Wilsonwho is now the closer for the Detroit Tigers.
The best choice in my opinion would be Wilson simply because since being inserted in the closer role with Detroit he has been fantastic, minus one hiccup against the Chicago White Sox where he gave up three earned runs in the bottom of the ninth with a 4-0 lead. The team still won the game despite it and his record as closer is 2-2 with seven saves and one blown save.
Now there’s no one near the level of Chapman’s stature available on the trade market today as he is by far and away the best closer in baseball.
His ERA during this time is a high 3.94, however if you take out that one blip against the White Sox his ERA drops to 2.25 in that stretch. And it’s important to note how much one big inning can really inflate a reliever’s numbers and not truly reflect their performance. He’s also struck out 22 batters in his 16 innings as a closer so he has the stuff to make batters swing and miss.
He wouldn’t be inserted as closer anyhow for our team so the pressure would be off of him and he could be used as more than a lefty specialist which is a big boost and will help us not have to lean on the inconsistentTony Sippso heavily.
Wilson also has post season experience with the Tigers and is at a similar age to Chapman when Chapman was traded (Chapman was 28 at the time of his trade and Wilson is 29 years old.)
Considering Wilson is nowhere near Chapman’s level, the Astros certainly wouldn’t need to trade a top five prospect though we’d almost definitely need to move a top 10 prospect along with a low top 20’s or maybe just outside our top prospect list.
Another interesting comparison that gives us a closer idea of value is theJose Verastrade to Detroit back in 2013, where the Tigers traded their number four prospect at the timeDanry Vasquezand a player to be named later (David Paulinoas it turned out.) to the Astros for a half season of Veras.
Contracts are important to note here too, as Watson is signed for over $5 million perspotrac.comand is a free agent next year, whereasJustin Wilsonhas one year left of arbitration and is making$2.7 million per yearandBrad Handis the cheapest making a little under$1.4 milliona year with two years of arbitration left.
Unfortunately outside of the Astros top five prospects, offensively none of their prospects ranked six through ten are having good years.
Since Wilson seems like the best of both worlds here, I would imagine the Astros would need to trade away number six prospectFranklin Perezas he is only 19 years old at A+ ball but has a lot of promise. He’d probably be packaged with a lower level prospect alongside him. The only problem is that the Tigers are stacked at the minor league level with13 of their top 20 prospects being pitchersaccording to mlb.com, so they would most likely prefer offense.
Unfortunately outside of the Astros top five prospects, offensively none of their prospects ranked six through ten are having good years.Teoscar Hernandezwould have to be most appealing so he would be the one I would imagine would go if they Tigers prefer offense back in the trade.
Most likely eitherFranklin PerezorTeoscar Hernandezis gone in any trade for a left handed reliever along with a lower level prospect like number 26 Brendan Mccurry or someone outside the top 30.
Moving on…
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