Houston Astros: Forrest Whitley is looking like the real deal

It was just over a year ago the Houston Astros selected Forrest Whitley in the 2016 June Amateur Draft. Since that time Whitley has hit a few bumps in the road, as is expected for a recent high school graduate adjusting to playing against professional level athletes. But this year across two levels he has been dominating.

The Houston Astros felt they could take a high risk high reward draft choice in the form of a high school pitcher with the 17th selection in last year’s draft due to the strength at the top of their farm system with Francis Martes and David Paulino as their number one and number three prospects both knocking on the door of the major leagues. Not to mention young pitchers who had moved up to the Major League level in Lance McCullers Jr. and Joe Musgrove.

It is looking like that selection has given us a future ace in the making. In 12 starts at single-A ball, Forrest Whitley gave up zero earned runs in half of those starts. In nine of those 12 starts, he threw at least six strikeouts in each game despite never throwing more than five innings in any of those starts. His control started off well this year as he only allowed four walks in his first five starts, though it has gone down hill a bit since then including two starts where he walked four batters including his final start at single-A.

He just got promoted to A+ ball and man did he make a debut. How is this for a stat line?

5 innings pitched. Zero earned runs. Zero hits. One walk. Nine strikeouts.

Another positive sign is that of the balls that were put in play, three were groundouts, three were flyouts, two of which were pop-ups. Zero line drives were recorded. So even when the ball was put in play, the team was not making good contact off of him.

In 12 starts at single-A ball, Forrest Whitley gave up zero earned runs in half of those starts.

Now obviously when a pitcher switches to a new league and hitters haven’t seen them yet the advantage certainly goes to the pitcher, especially a talented one like Whitley. But right now if I had to pick any of our pitching prospects (And this includes Martes and Paulino) I would say Whitley has the best chance of becoming an ace.

He’s performed quite well and has great periphery numbers. Last year despite a 4.82 ERA in rookie ball, he gave up zero home runs and struck out 26 in 18.2 innings pitched. This year he’s given up only two home runs over 13 starts and hasn’t given up a long ball since his fourth start of the year while striking out 76 in 51.1 innings pitched for a K/9 rate of 13.3.

To put that in perspective the major league leader in K/9 is Chris Sale with a rate of 12.38 K/9. Now obviously Forrest Whitley is against weaker competition but he’s also 19 years old playing at the level of competition where he belongs given his short time in pro ball and young age. And if we want to compare him to his minor league cohorts in single-A, he is second only behind Dylan Cease who is at 13.5 K/9.

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Now he has struggled with his control in recent starts but what minor league pitcher starting out doesn’t. The key here is his strikeout numbers have been consistently high and done at a ridiculous rate. And he doesn’t give up a ton of hard contact as evidenced by only two home runs off of him in the first 70 innings of his professional career.

The Astros will have a financial decision to make in 2019 on whether they pay Dallas Keuchel or not during his opening year of free agency. They have to keep in mind the impending free agencies of Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa in the years shortly thereafter. Forrest Whitley could factor into that decision if he seems like he’s ready for the show.

In my mind, Forrest Whitley should be untouchable in trade talks because despite some rough starts, he’s had way more dominant ones as evidenced with the numbers above. Pitching is a really tough area to determine future success as injury strikes so frequently in young hurlers. But if the Astros are to sell at the moment, I would send Martes over Whitley in a heartbeat.

Next: David Paulino suspension costs team a trade chip

Whitley’s first start in A+ ball was a phenomenal one. Hopefully he can keep it going and before we know it, have another frontline starter alongside Lance McCullers Jr. and potentially Dallas Keuchel. Astros nation is pulling for you Forrest. We look forward to seeing you in 2019.

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