Houston Astros: Trade market for starting pitchers may be shifting
The Houston Astros have been decimated by one injury after another to their starting rotation. While they crushed the Texas Rangers 13-2 last night behind a fine start by Francis Martes, sooner rather than later they will need to make a move for another starting pitcher.
The Houston Astros are in a conundrum though as some teams are still questionable to being sellers at the moment. Currently the Oakland A’s have the right combination of a poor record and huge division deficit that puts them squarely in the sellers market. Sonny Gray being the target there.
It’s always hard to trade within the division though. And the Astros would like to shoot higher as the team has built a record that gives them real hope of a World Series appearance. They will go for broke to solidify their rotation with a true ace they can trust.
Another target for the team has been Jose Quinatana, though his 2017 has been less than specatcular. Most likely the Chicago White Sox will become sellers as they have a poor record of 28-36. But a six game deficit with a division leader who is only four games over .500 will give pause to a general manager until closer to deadline time. Especially with the haul of prospects they received over the winter for Adam Eaton and Chris Sale, some of whom could be ready to come up and make an impact for a division title run if the division leader remains weak.
The Astros were most recently tied to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Gerrit Cole. The Pirates seem to share a similar predicament to the White Sox though as they have a poor record of 30-36 but are only four games behind the Milwaukee Brewers who are leading a division with a 34-32 record.
One team that once was thought as a seller but for sure isn’t at the moment is the Tampa Bay Rays as they currently occupy the 2nd Wild Card spot for the American League. Chris Archer is going nowhere unless a significant drop off happens between now and July 31st.
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The Astros front office is in a very tough spot because of weak divisions and may have to look at other divisions where the race is out of hand. At the moment that leaves teams in their own division, as well as the National League East and the National League West.
As a result, teams that weren’t originally discussed as sellers we now should look at. Every team in the National League East that isn’t the Washington Nationals could be in play in short order with the division and wild card deficits they all face. The New York Mets are the closest to the playoffs with an 8.5 game deficit in the division and 9.5 in the wild card.
The only target on that team now that Matt Harvey potentially has arm fatigue (Not that he was an attractive trade prize before) would be Jacob DeGrom. But DeGrom has three years of arbitation left before he hits free agency in 2021. And with the haul the White Sox got for Chris Sale, there may be no package enticing enough to swing the Mets to sell their current ace with the years of control they have left.
The sellers in the National League West consist of two teams, the San Diego Padres and the San Francisco Giants. The Giants have fallen quite hard since their divisional series loss to the eventual World Series champion Chicago Cubs. Specifically their mega contract pitchers are failing to a high degree. The Astros don’t want an unsure thing, but an interesting thought would be to see how Madison Bumgarner recovers (He is due back right around the all-star game on July 10th) and see where the Giants stand on their future come trade deadline time.
As a result, teams that weren’t originally discussed as sellers we now should look at
The Giants currently are underneath mammoth contracts to Jeff Smardzija and Johnny Cueto and that money is looking like it was ill spent based on the seasons they are having. Bumgarner is under contract for a team friendly $12 million a year over the next two years before hitting free agency in 2019.
With the money and years the team has committed to Cueto, Smardzija and Buster Posey (Signed for $21 million a year through 2023) the Giants most likely would be out of Bumgarner’s price range when he seeks his new contract on the free agent market. This is all contingent on him returning healthy of course, but it’s a thought that could cross the Astros’ mind if their starters keep hitting the disabled list and the team struggles while piecing together a rotation to just survive.
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Unfortunately that wouldn’t be for at least another month if not longer. As it stands though, the Astros need to start looking at other potential options because if the Pirates or White Sox surge and leave the market, they will have to get creative and adjust to the new sellers.