Houston Astros Should Bring Back Scott Kazmir

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After adding two key pieces to their bullpen, the Houston Astros are turning to phase two of their offseason plan: adding to their rotation.

Though the Astros have been rumored to be interested in the likes of Yovani Gallardo and Mike Leake, I think they are best served bringing back a familiar face in Scott Kazmir.

There are several reasons for my line of thinking. Most importantly, though, is the fact that he’s statistically one of the best available starting pitchers in free agency.

As a 31-year old, Kazmir threw 183 innings and finished the season amassing a 3.10 ERA with the Astros and Athletics last season. Gallardo finished the season with a 3.42 ERA and Leake with a 3.70 ERA. Obviously ERA isn’t the end-all be-all, but if you take a look at all the numbers you can clearly see that Kazmir is better.

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When looking at potential contracts, Kazmir is likely to be the cheapest. It may not be the cheapest in terms of money-per-year, but his total contract likely won’t exceed three years. That’s another reason I prefer Kazmir, over guys like Gallardo and Leake who will command at least four years, and don’t project to be much better than they were last year.

Need some other reasons? If the Astros sign Gallardo, it would cost them their first round pick, something GM Jeff Luhnow values highly. Leake would probably cost the Astros the most in terms of years and money. Trading for any other pitcher would cost the Astros prospect. It simply just not worth it for me, considering Kazmir is home-grown, would like to come back and is simply the best pitcher available.

The crazy thing about Kazmir’s 3.10 ERA is that he was terrible during the last two months last season. Kazmir finished with a 3.94 ERA in five August starts, but September was much worse for him as he finished with a 6.52 ERA in six starts. Even with those two months Kazmir’s ERA was still far better than Gallardo or Leake.

The veteran lefty was an ace for the first four months of the season and there’s no reason to believe that will change over the next few seasons. Had Kazmir not struggled in September, it’s likely that he would be able to receive $20 million a season for three years. However, those late-season struggles likely cost him a good chunk of change.

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I will admit, his September struggles are a tad worrisome, but it’s something that the Astros could plan for starting in March. If they sign him, pitching coach Brent Strom could work with him all season long to hopefully avoid the letdown. A.J. Hinch will also have the option to skip starts here and there to keep his arm more fresh later in the year.

Gallardo and Leake don’t deserve the contracts they’ll get. Innings-eaters have value, but both starters don’t have the ace-upside that Kazmir has shown over the last two seasons. I’ll take upside over a consistent mediocrity any day of the week. If you want that mediocrity, I point you to Mike Fiers, who would be at the end of the rotation or bullpen.

The truth is the Astros would be just fine staying put at this point. Still, I think we can expect a repeat performance from Kazmir over the next few seasons and I’d love for that to be in an Astros uniform behind Dallas Keuchel.

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