Nov 2, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans running back Arian Foster (23) before the game against the Philadelphia Eagles at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Issue: Arian Foster’s groin
DEFCON Level: 2
Reasoning: Initially, when I heard the news on Monday I had this at DEFCON 4. Sure, Arian Foster is the cog that makes the Texans an average (at-best) NFL offense but I didn’t think he would be out 12 weeks because of it. I figured he would miss the first four regular season games and it would be like he got suspended for smoking weed. Alfred Blue would score 20 fantasy points in Week 1, score 20 points combined over the next three weeks, drive fantasy owners crazy and Foster would be back in time for the Thursday Night game against the Indianapolis Colts. No big deal.
Then, news broke that the injury was more severe. Foster will require surgery and be out until Week 10. So, I bumped it up to DEFCON 3. Still worried, but not in a panic yet. I spent most of Tuesday morning trying to figure out if I would go to karma hell, or not, for endorsing Ray Rice before reminding myself that Bob McNair would never go for this and for the comedy that will ensue when Dallas picks him up in Week 4 after Darren McFadden and Joseph “Don’t Touch My Underwear” Randle don’t pan out.
Question: Is there anyway that we can start a GoFundMe account to gamble on this, as a city, so we can celebrate collectively when it happens?
So the next question becomes, who should we sign? Because if the question is Arian Foster, the answer is never Pierre Thomas. Let’s take a quick look at some of the available RBs and see if we can’t find a more suitable replacement:
- Player A – 155 rushes, 663 yards, 4.3yrd/rush, 24 rec, 151 yards, 6.3yrd/rec
- Player B – 90 rushes, 425 yards, 4.7yrd/rush, 38 rec, 300 yards, 7.9yrd/rec
- Player C – 138 rushes, 525 yards, 3.8yrd/rush, 21 rec, 167 yards, 8.0yrd/rec
Player A & B are both 29-years old. Player C is 28. The stats for Player A & B are from the 2014 season. The stats for Player C are from 2012. Player A is former Titans RB Chris Johnson. Player B is Ahmad Bradshaw. Player C is Knowshown Moreno.
Bradshaw has the best numbers and was having a fantastic 2014 season before his year ended prematurely due to injury, but you have to account for the Andrew Luck factor and what he can do for a RB’s numbers. (Consequentially, I guess we should probably do the exact opposite for Chris Johnson since Geno Smith has the exact opposite effect on RB’s numbers.) But for my money – and hypothetically yours – I would go with Knowshown Moreno. The reason why I used his 2012 stats and not his outstanding 2013 campaign is because his 2012 season was closer to his overall career averages. Even though the first few games of the 2014 season looked promising.
Moreno is younger, has fewer mileage and a much higher ceiling than the other two RBs. Plus, he’s never punched a woman unconscious so he has that going for him, as well. I think he’d be a great addition to this team, but honestly the real reason why this situation has moved to DEFCON 2 is our schedule. Moreno’s only red-flag is his injury history, but we only need him for eight games before Foster comes back. NFL contracts are non-guaranteed, so the cost will be minimal if Moreno does get hurt.
The first eight games of the season aren’t especially brutal, but Weeks 4, 5 and 6 are savage. Road games at Atlanta and Jacksonville sandwiching a home game against the Colts that will be played on short rest. Three games in 14 days without Arian Foster, two of which are divisional.
Is it too early for a drink?
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