Are The Houston Astros Contenders Or Pretenders?

Your Houston Astros are on fire! They have won nine of their last 10, including five straight on the road! They have scored 39 runs in their last four games and there are no signs of them slowing down.

The Astros now have a four-game lead in the AL West and have many wondering if this team is legit or not. I say THEY ARE.

Let’s take a look at some numbers.

The Astros aren’t a HUGE hitting team quite yet. As a matter of fact, they’re only 20th in MLB with a .239 AVG. They’re 14th in OBP (.319) and 9th in OPS (.736), thanks to their power (tied for first in home runs with 28). When the Astros do get on base, they take advantage of it, stealing 26 bases this season (1st in MLB). As expected, the Astros are also first in strikeouts with 192, and that’s a pace that is guaranteed to stay put.

Using those numbers, the Astros aren’t exactly an offensive powerhouse quite yet. They’re 9th in runs, but that’s largely in part to a recent four-game surge plating 39 runs, including 14 just last night.

Just looking at the everyday lineup and you see this team isn’t even hitting as well as they could and should be hitting.

Jose Altuve is MASHING and that will continue. He’s hitting .348 this season and that’s about where he’ll be at for the rest of the season. Jake Marisnick is hitting .380 with an OPS of 1.069. Those numbers are sure to go down but by how much? He doesn’t have much of a track record because of his age but he was one of the better prospects in the Marlins farm system. Maybe he’s breaking out?!?

Apr 20, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Houston Astros right fielder George Springer (4) doubles against the Seattle Mariners during the sixth inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

The power bats of George Springer, Evan Gattis, and Chris Carter have all underwhelmed through 20 games. Just seven home runs between the three, three of which came only last night. Springer’s .197 average should be almost 100 points higher. Gattis is hitting just .162 on the season and Carter .176, both of whom could hit at least 50-75 points higher.

Offseason acquisitions Colby Rasmus (.254, 3 HR) and Luis Valbuena (.225, 5 HR) have had fine seasons, but nothing out of the ordinary. If anything you could argue they could also hit almost 20-30 points higher. Jason Castro (.200) has been hitting the ball hard but has been VERY unlucky this season. His .209 BABIP is extremely low for someone with a 33.3 percent line drive percentage. We could see his numbers rise shortly.

The injury to Jed Lowrie hurts but Marwin Gonzalez is capable of putting together strong at-bats. He doesn’t have the power Lowrie has but should be able to get on base and mix in the power from time to time. Jonathan Villar will take Gonzalez’s place as the team’s utility man.

And then you take a look at the pitchers. Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh have had great starts to the season, following their dominant 2014 campaigns. A repeat of their 2014 numbers is expected.

Roberto Hernandez and Scott Feldman are both veteran pitchers capable of stringing together many quality starts, along with a blow-up here and there. The fifth starters spot is still a question, though I expect Brett Oberholtzer to take over at some point.

The bullpen has been pretty good all season long but that shouldn’t shock many. Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek were two acquisitions made this offseason to bolster the pen and they’ve been huge. Sam Deduno and Will Harris have also had great seasons out of pen.

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