Houston Texans Free Agency Predictions


With news of the Texans cutting ties with Andre Johnson and Chris Myers, the madness that is free agency has officially begun. After the Johnson and Myers savings, the Texans have roughly $27.3 million in cap space to play with. Here are my predictions on how things will shake out over the next few weeks:

Ryan Mallett – It’s no secret the Texans are looking to bring back Mallett. Houston is the best career move for him to cash an even bigger check (if he earns it) in the future. Period. Josh McCown got a 3yr/$14 million deal with Cleveland, so I’m going to guess Mallett gets a 2yr/$10 million deal. Now the cap is around $22.6 million.

Nov 23, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans free safety

Kendrick Lewis

(21) is congratulated by cornerback

Johnathan Joseph

(24) after making a defensive play during the fourth quarter against the Cincinnati Bengals at NRG Stadium. The Bengals defeated the Texans 22-13. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Kendrick Lewis – The 26-year old earned his keep. He was a pleasant surprise last season, playing a big part in the Texans secondary. In my opinion, he is essential to bring back, and I believe they will do just that. 4yr/$13 million deal for Lewis. Cap room is now around $19.3 million.

Derek Newton – Another guy who earned a big paycheck. Newton had one good season and one bad, so it’s up in the air how much he will make. However, with a demand for tackles around the league, I think it’ll drive his price up. 4yr/$19 million deal for Newton, bringing the cap to $14.5 million.

Danieal Manning & Ryan Pickett – Two guys that did play a role in the defense last year. They come cheap, Manning with a 2yr/$1.5 million deal and Pickett with a 1yr/$1 million deal. Cap is now at $12 million.

THIS JUST IN. That guy Garrett Graham who caught the ball that one time is a cap casualty. He’s gone, bringing the cap back up to $16 million.

Kareem Jackson – Many people will disagree, and that’s fine, but the Texans shouldn’t bring KJax back. He’s going to want CB1 money, and he just isn’t that. Denver’s Chris Harris, arguably one of the best corners in the league right now, received a deal that’s going to get him around $8.5 million a year. At the end of the day, Jackson’s deal is going to be somewhere around that ballpark. Do you really want the Texans to be the ones to give it to him? Let the Dolphins or Jets overpay for him.

More CB news…Johnathan Joseph is getting overpaid. However, the team needs someone playing cornerback. Joseph’s contract get’s restructured, and just like that, the cap is up to $20 million.

Now, it’s time for the new faces.

Jabaal Sheard (CLE, OLB) – I don’t think the Texans are bringing back Brooks Reed. With Clowney’s future up in the air, they need someone who can play across from Mercilus. Sheard fell off a bit this past season, but you can assume the foot injury he played through for half of the season was the root of the problem. The 26-year old would fill the OLB need perfectly, getting somewhere around a 4yr/$20 million deal. Cap is now at $15 million.

Eddie Royal (SD, WR) – Not Cobb or Maclin, I know. With reports of the Texans bringing in Brian Hartline yesterday, I highly doubt they break the bank for either guy, and instead will find Dre’s replacement in the draft. I also don’t anticipate Hartline coming, based off a report saying he wants more money from a team without a reputable QB. Instead, they bolster up the WR corps with Royal, and O’Brien gets an upgrade at the slot position. 3yr/$7.5 million deal for Royal, bringing the cap to $12.5 million.

Sterling Moore (DAL, CB) – Moore was a pleasant surprise for the Cowboys last season when he was asked to step up and start. He’s also just 25 years old and can play both outside and in the slot. If KJax leaves, Moore would be a great addition to the secondary, adding both starting experience and versatility. He gets a 3yr/$10.5 deal. Cap is now at $9 million.

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Jared Odrick (MIA, DE/DT) – This is more of a “wishful thinking” pick for me. Odrick is coming off a great season and can line up anywhere on the line. Sound familiar? He would provide some pass rush from someone not named J.J. which the Texans desperately need. He may be a little pricey, which is why I have a hard time believing it can happen. Nevertheless, a 4yr/$28 million deal would keep the Texans over the cap by $2 million for rookies.

Not the sexiest of free agency ventures, but I don’t expect the Texans to go after the big names. And to save yourself from heartache, you shouldn’t either.

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Next: A Farewell To Andre Johnson