Three Bold Predictions For The Houston Astros

Three Bold Predictions For The Houston Astros in 2015

With the off season winding down and Spring Training right around the corner we can all start to look towards April 6th, opening day. With the 2015 season comes some excitement that Astros fans have lacked the last few seasons. The offseason additions of Jed Lowrie, Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek, Evan Gattis, Luis Valbuena, Dan Straily, and Colby Rasmus leads to some optimism this season. Most fans assume the Astros will take a step forward this season. Even ESPN’s David Schoenfield is predicting the Astros for a 83-79 record.

Last year the Astros saw great contributions from Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh, Jose Altuve, Chris Carter, and rookie George Springer. For the first time in a few years, the Astros have a few young players that fans can see the team build around.

Of course for the Astros to really move forward they are going to need some guys to step up and break out. Now guys like Springer, Singleton, Marisnick, and Oberholtzer have had some MLB experience so it is possible a few of them take a big step forward and improve their game. I am very excited for this season and can’t wait for April.

Here are three bold predictions for the Houston Astros in 2015:

1. George Springer Finishes Top 5 AL MVP Voting

The legend of George will continue to grow in 2015. Making his debut for the Houston Astros on April 16th, 2014, Springer put together a respectable rookie season. Expect his sophomore year to be even better. In 2014 as a rookie Springer hit .231 with a .804 OPS and 20 HR in only 78 games. His 162-game pace from his rookie season would be 42 HR, 106 RBI. 42 HR would have led the MLB last season ahead of Nelson Cruz‘s 40 HR (he finished 7th in MVP voting), yet Cruz doesn’t have the speed or defense of Springer.

Jul 9, 2014; Arlington, TX, USA; Houston Astros center fielder George Springer (4) bats during the game against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Now while I don’t expect Springer to hit 40+ HR, I think 35 HR is definitely a reasonable total. In his rookie season he struck out a little bit too much but has shown in the minor leagues the ability to adjust to a tougher level.

Another area I expect him to improve on is his stolen bases. After stealing 45 bases in 135 games in 2013, Springer only stole 5 bases at the major league level. I expect him to be in the 20-25 SB range in 2015. Combine this along with his defense and we could be looking at a guy posting 5-6 WAR. George Springer will finish 2015 with 35+HR, 100+ RBI, 20+ SB and finish in the top 5 AL MVP voting.

2. Brett Oberholtzer breaks out in the Astros rotation

Brett Oberholtzer seems to be a guy that is overlooked when it comes to the Astros rotation. Some people pencil him in for the 4th starter job while others think he will battle it out for the 5th starter. One thing I know for sure is that Oberholtzer has been successful in his limited amount of time with the Astros. For his career he has thrown 215.1 IP, for a 3.85 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 1.7 BB/9, 5.8 SO/9. Brett has done a good job of getting ground balls and limiting homeruns. His career FIP of 3.59 is comparable to Alex Cobb and Sonny Gray and actually better than Rick Porcello and James Shields.

Aug 2, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Brett Oberholtzer (39) pitches against the Toronto Blue Jays at Minute Maid Park. The Astros defeated the Blue Jays 8-2. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

In 2014, Oberholtzer started 24 games to the tune of 4.39 ERA but a FIP 3.56. This came with a BABIP of .325 which was higher than Keuchel, McHugh, Feldman, and the MLB average. Steamer projects his BABIP to go down to .291 which will definitely help his cause. With all this said, I think Oberholtzer has his breakout season. In 2015, Oberholtzer will finish with 12+ wins and an ERA around 3.30 in 30+ starts cementing him in the Astros rotation.

3. Dallas Keuchel Wins 20+ Games

Dallas Keuchel really had a break out season last year going 12-9 with a 2.93 ERA and 5 complete games. He complied exactly 200 IP, 48 BB, 146 SO and 5.1 WAR. He won the Gold Glove award for pitchers and anchored the young Astros staff. I expect bigger things for Keuchel in 2015.

Aug 26, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel (60) pitches during the fifth inning against the Oakland Athletics at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Last season Dallas won 12 games. Also last season, Dallas either lost or got a no decision in 10 games in which he allowed 3 ER or less. This included 6 games with 2 ER or less. Keuchel’s 200 innings pitched was also the most innings pitched in Dallas Keuchel’s career and it is highly possible he eclipses that amount in 2015.