Playoff Series Preview: Houston Rockets vs. Portland Trailblazers

The Matchups

Point Guard: Patrick Beverley vs. Damian Lillard

Patrick Beverley is to the Western Conference playoffs as Liu Kang is to the the Mortal Kombat tournament; except for a certain modification. Patrick Kang will be skipping all the preliminary rounds and will instead fight Shao Kahn possibly 21 times in a row. If he makes it through this then he’ll most likely meet a sickly puppy in the actual Finals, i.e. Mario Chalmers or George Hill. The first of the Shao Kahn shall be his warm up, Damian Lillard.

The battles between Lillard and Bev have gotten some publicity this season as Lillard has spoken publicly about Bev, saying he is “irritating and tries to get under your skin”. In an interview with Matt Thomas on 790, Beverley requested that MT ask a question about Lillard so that he could make it public that “Lillard is a winer.” So this matchup might be extra fun if some fireworks fly between the two.

If Patrick is going to “shut down” a offensive weapon during the post season it will be Lillard. DL relies heavily on his athleticism and less so on the craft associated with being a point guard.  He doesn’t disect offenses like the elite PGs do, but can do damage in transition and from deep. He is well on his way to the elite title but in the half court Bev will have the advantage. DL will get his points but I don’t think it will come in an efficient manner.

The advantage will lie with Portland but this is the closest matchup to call.

Advantage: Portland

Shooting Guard: James Harden vs. Wesley Matthews

Wesley Matthews is a jump shooter. It’s his one true talent. His defense is sufficient but nothing Harden hasn’t broken down in the past. He is shooting just under 40% from three this year and is actually averaging a stout 16.4 points a game. When he has it going the Trailblazers get much tougher to guard, as suddenly Lamarcus Aldridge has space to operate and Lillard has someone to kick to off the drive. Wesley has seized the opportunity given by Batum’s down season and continues to run with it. With Harden’s defense you can expect Matthews to throw up a few 20 point games and probably even a 30 point night that will most likely end in a Houston loss.

But no matter how well he shoots, James Harden is still the lead dog in this pack. I’m not convinced Harden is terribly worried about what Matthews brings to the table. As the graphic illustrated, Harden is averaging 30 points against the Blazers and Houston might need all 30 if they are going to advance to the next round.

Advantage: Houston

Small Forward: Chandler Parsons vs. Nicolas Batum

These guys are pretty close to statistical mirrors. Chandler scores a little bit more, and Batum does a little bit more of everything else but their PER is exactly the same at 15.9. Batum is yet to have a big game against Houston and Parsons will aim to continue the trend. Chandler had his big game during the January run of dominance, as he collected 30 points, 10 rebounds, 7 assists, and 2 blocks in a Houston win.

In this battle of talented rangy small forwards their overall value could end up being determined by who makes the most big shots as opposing defenses hone in on the other four respective stars on the court. This matchup is close but I’ll give it to Chandler, not because of his good looks, but because of his sparkling personality.

Advantage: Houston

Power Forward: LaMarcus Aldridge vs. Terrence Jones

If TJ actually matches up with LMA then the power forward position will be a place from which we derive little joy. I imagine LMA will see a number of defensive marks in Howard, Asik, D-Mo and TJ. When we played the Blazers early this season, we were still sporting the twin towers lineup and Omer Asik marked LMA for most of the night. He got his points, but in a hugely inefficient display of fall away jumpshots, so I’m hoping to see a rekindling of this matchup at least for a few stretches. The goal will be to keep him from getting too comfortable but ultimately there is little anyone can do to keep LMA from scoring. Outside of Dirk, his midrange post game is truly the best, and his fall away is unblockable.

LMA had moster games each time out against Houston so the goal isn’t to stop him, it’s more about not letting the rest of the Blazers beat you as well.

Advantage: Portland

Center: Dwight Howard vs Robin Lopez

As I stated above, rebounding has shown to be one of the dominating factors in determining a winner between these two teams. Much of this will rest on the shoulders of the respective centers. Howard and Asik will have to dominate Lopez night in and night out if the Rockets are going to take the series. LMA will have his way with the power forward position so Lopez is the X-factor in my opinion. If Howard doesn’t assert dominance on the boards then this thing could stretch out to a 7 games series and possibly a first round exit.

That being said, Howard has done just that during the season series, and with the team at full strength I expect much of the same.

Advantage: Houston

Bench Players

Houston: Donatas Motiejunas, Francisco Garcia, Jordan Hamilton, Jeremy Lin, Omri Casspi, Omer Asik

Portland: Thomas Robinson, Mo Williams, Dorell Wright, Joel Freeland, Meyers Leonard

The Blazers starting five is where almost all their talent lies. Everyone one of their starters is going to play big minutes and each of them playing well will be crucial if they plan to make a run in the playoffs. Normally they run an 8 man rotation with Dorell Wright, Mo Williams, and Thomas Robinson, but against the Rockets I am assuming we’ll see some Joel Freeland and Meyers Leonard as well. Mo Williams and Jeremy Lin will be leading their respective second units and Lin’s play will determine if McHale will be given a chance to sit Harden, Parsons, and Howard for any amount of time. Lin has always been important to this team, and we are all rooting for him because winning a 6 or 7 games series with your starters playing 45 minutes each game is not a win it the truest sense.

Advantage: Houston

Series Prediction: 4-2 Hou Wins

I think a fully healthy Rockets team should finish off the Trailblazers in 6 games. Portland is going to have a few nights where they can’t miss, but jump shooting, as many Rockets fans know, is a fleeting skill. The 48 minute presence of Howard and Asik will make us a difficult matchup for most teams, and the Blazers are no exception. After LMA and Lopez the Portland front line thins dramatically, and they simply won’t have the bodies to win the rebounding battle.

Patrick Beverley hopefully stays healthy, so he can face his next Shao Kahn, Tony Parker.