Playing Rockets GM: Analyze and Correct
The Houston Rockets lost their fourth in a row to the Boston Celtics on November 16th. This is just one year removed from a season where the Rockets didn’t drop three consecutive games. They now sit at 4-7 in the Southwest with a 36% winning percentage.
Houston has managed to hit rock bottom and find a shovel.
Why not pile on and let me play amateur GM?
We’re so used to the steady hand and innovation of GM Daryl Morey that it’s not really possible to figure out a better course of action than what will inevitably unfold. Houston consistently looks lethargic on the floor and defeated mentally when the going gets tough. Quite contrary to pre-season posturing, the Rockets look deflated and dejected, beaten and bedraggled. As amateur GM, we have to assess needs, assess strengths, identify key contributors and future necessities, and then make a verdict on next steps.
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Where strengths are concerned, the Rockets have seen fantastic contributions and growth from Clint Capela, Marcus Thornton and Terrence Jones. All three of these players have played well and contributed to what little success Houston has seen this year. Dwight Howard’s current 15 points, 13 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game – only present for 7 games this year – has been a major highlight for Houston as well.
All things considered, Houston is actually contributing almost identical blocks, steals, and rebounds as they did last year while holding fairly steady with turnovers. These are truly areas to improve but they didn’t hold this roster back last year and they can’t be blamed for this year’s failure.
Houston’s shortcomings reflect just as much in the box score as they do in their effort. As an aside, almost none of us are behavioral psychologists, please don’t interpret body language as though we are. Houston’s shooting 5% worse from beyond the arc. That 5% change represents two three-pointers in difference, six points. They’re shooting 2% worse from the field and putting up two more shots per game, good for a one basket differential, two points.
Houston’s ratio of threes to twos has skewed from 33:51 (.65) to 32:53 (.60). Given the poor shooting from beyond the arc, this doesn’t bode well for the Rockets, long term. Houston has upped its pace to 101.2, up from last year’s 99, which works to amplify these issues.
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Now, we know our issues are simple; not all role players are contributing, Dwight Howard is not available consistently and Houston’s percentages are below where they should.
Up front, Houston has two untouchable players, Dwight Howard and James Harden. Sorry, it’s true, Howard is material to this team. Players that Houston needs long term are Clint Capela, Corey Brewer, and Patrick Beverley. Trevor Ariza, and Beverley are integral to the defensive identity of the Rockets.
This makes fungible players out of K.J. McDaniels, Terrence Jones, Donatas Motiejunas, and Ty Lawson. Lawson is fairly unmovable, given that he’s performing well below his career averages at 9 points and 6 assists a game. McDaniels is a fairly untested young player. Motiejunas is injured. Jones is critical for the time being but is certainly on the hot seat.
Under no circumstances do we consider terminating the coach. Kevin McHale’s track record is too good in Houston to throw him out. He received an extension last year, guided the Rockets through injuries to a Western Conference Finals appearance and is off to a rocky start while integrating young players into heavy minutes and incorporating Ty Lawson.
A critical look at the Rockets woes actually lead to patience being a fairly prudent course of action. Harden is shooting 10% below his usual three-point clip, 12% below last year. He’s also shooting nearly four more threes per game last year. At this percentage, these are wasted possessions and killer on efficiency (-6% from last year).
Corey Brewer has witnessed a plummeting to his field goal efficiency, both beyond the arc and inside it. These trends are fairly consistent to key players for the Rockets. True shooting percentage has plummeted for key contributors in many stages.
Our root cause analysis reveals an efficient team that’s in a hurry to not convert things. Remember, our movable players are McDaniels, Motiejunas, Jones, and Lawson.
My first move as the GM for a day is to chide the offensive coaching staff – this includes McHale. The offense only works when it’s efficient and each player has been selected for that trait. When an offensive system fails to yield those sorts of opportunities, you have to either overhaul it or ensure the plan is stuck to.
If the issue is player discipline, I’m in McHale’s ear that he needs to bench Harden (Not long term, just for stints/a game). Howard is visibly frustrated and yelling at players while he’s posting some of the most efficient numbers on the team (+3%); feature Dwight if Harden is unwilling to reign in his game.
My second action is to call around the league to entertain offers for Donatas Motiejunas. He proved last year he’s similar to Andrea Bargnani if he ever learned help side defense. He’s also failed to significantly lower his value by limping into this year. Montrezl Harrel still has a way to go before he’s a reliable backup, but I can flip Motiejunas for a bench power forward while Harrel comes along. This will get rid of ambiguity about the power forward situation and send a message to the rest of the roster, you’re fungible.
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My last action is to make the case for Ty Lawson to come off the bench. Conventional wisdom says to overwhelm with talent. Unfortunately, with a ball-dominant guard in Harden the talent Lawson has doesn’t work. Harden, through his actions on the floor, doesn’t want to play without the ball. Lawson is best utilized as the ball-handler. Lawson to the bench adds an extra element of attack that’s currently missing from the run and gun transition bench we’ve put together.
If you’ve stuck with me to this point, sound off in the comments or verbally assault me on Twitter. By following the plan outlined above, we can see that no radical overhaul needs to take place; the Rockets need only show some tough love to their players, reward those paying dividends and wait for the law of averages to kick in.
The only real question is whether they can ride this out without letting it get the best of them. The fortitude of this team will be its victory, or its undoing.
Stick with us here at House of Houston for all your Rockets coverage.
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