Astros: Should We Start Worrying About Scott Kazmir?
By Yoni Pollak
The Houston Astros acquired Scott Kazmir in mid-July, in hopes that he would help them push towards a pennant.
In July, Kazmir was the best pitcher in baseball, finishing the month with a microscopic 0.26 ERA and 0.62 WHIP in five starts across 34 innings. Two of those starts were with the Astros and sure had the Houston faithful excited for what was to come. Kazmir hasn’t pitched as well since and it may be something Astros fans should start to worry about.
One of the concerns I had when acquiring Kazmir were his previous year’s second-half splits. In July 2014, Kazmir had a 1.38 ERA. However, things got much worse in August, where he finished with a 7.80 ERA in six starts. September was better, but still not good, finishing with a 4.35 ERA in five starts.
Kazmir didn’t pitch in the majors in 2012, instead landing a gig just outside of Houston with the Sugar Land Skeeters. The Cleveland Indians gave him a chance in 2013 and he gave them 29 starts, finishing the season with a 4.04 ERA (158 innings). That offseason, the Astros wanted to sign Kazmir but they were too late in offering him a deal as he already committed to signing with the Athletics.
Before 2014, Kazmir hadn’t thrown more than 160 MLB innings since 2007 with the Tampa Bay Rays. Last year, however, he threw 190.1 innings. His first rough start of the second half came in his first start in August, where he allowed four runs and 10 hits in six innings. That first start in August came right at the 130 innings pitched mark for him in 2014. From then on he allowed four or more runs in six of his last 11 starts.
Let’s move to 2015. After a stellar first four months of the season, Kazmir allowed just one run in his first start in August, pushing him to exactly 130 innings pitched on the year. Since then, Kazmir has allowed 18 runs in 34.1 innings, which would give him a 4.72 ERA since hitting the 130 innings pitched mark this season.
The biggest change in Kazmir’s pre and post the 130 innings pitched mark is his HR/9 ration. Before the 130 innings pitched mark (click here for all of FanGraph’s numbers pre 130 innings), Kazmir had allowed just 0.55 home runs per nine innings. That number skyrocketed to 1.57 home runs per nine innings post the 130 innings pitched mark (click here for all of FanGraph’s numbers post 130 inings).
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Just like in 2014, Kazmir has had good outings sprinkled throughout his last two months. Kazmir’s last outing of the 2014 season was a beauty, hurling seven innings of one-run ball. We know Kazmir is capable of this even late in the season. Still, there definitely is reason to be concerned.
The August and September Kazmir isn’t the stud #2 SP the Astros can rely on anymore. Yes, he’s capable of giving you seven good innings here and there but I don’t think we can count on that for every single start anymore. Evidence from his last full season in the majors indicates that Kazmir loses his effectiveness during the later parts of the season.
Kazmir obviously isn’t close to the biggest concern right now. The Astros offense is certainly the biggest issue, and deserves most, if not all the blame for the Astros .500 ball lately. Still, Kazmir’s situation is definitely one to monitor as we battle it out for a division title.
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