Rockets Versus Warriors: The Final Showdown
The NBA Western Conference Finals tips off tonight, at 9:00 PM EST in Oakland California. Your Houston Rockets will be staring down the barrel at one of the most rock solid teams the NBA has seen in quite some time, the Golden State Warriors. The storylines will write themselves but, ultimately, we’re looking at one simple headline:
The team nobody wanted taking on the NBA’s darlings.
If this sort of narrative hearkens you back to a different period in Rockets history, good. You’ve been a fan for more than some people have been alive. The sixth seed Houston Rockets knocked off the emerging Orlando Magic, anchored by Shaq and Penny Hardaway. Granted, the stakes in this game are certainly lower than winning it all, but elements of pride make it abundantly clear that emotionally, this game may mean almost as much.
The Numbers
The Warriors put up 110 points per game and hold opponents to under 100. They play at the quickest pace in the NBA (98.3). Golden State is a 40% three point shooting team that pulls down roughly 45 boards a game and averaging 15 takeaways per game. Golden state holds opponents to 34% from deep and 45 rebounds per game. Golden State holds opponents to 46% from two while shooting 51% inside the arc. Where Golden State does have some weakness, however, is that they turn it over to the tune of 15 times per game and foul 20 times per game.
Houston, however, puts up 104 points per game and gives up 100. They shoot the three at 35% and pull down 44 boards per game. Houston shoots 51% inside the paint and holds opponents to 49% in that same space. They combine for 15 stops a game and turn the ball over 17 times in a tilt. Houston holds opponents to 32% from beyond the arc and 44 boards per game.
These numbers should be inspiring, people. What the numbers tell us is that Golden State, although monstrous in all areas, doesn’t play a style that will compel the Rockets to struggle, adapt, or change too drastically. Houston’s offense centers around the three-point shot and ability to generate points off turnovers. What this tells us is that Golden State’s challenge will be to generate points between the rim and the arc. Houston stands to have a greater impact on the Warriors’ production in that area than struggle due to Golden State’s efforts there.
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The Stories
There’s two here and if I have to go in-depth on them then you haven’t watched certain channels or read certain outlets. Good for you.
The MVP versus the Anointed One. James Harden is the MVP. I’m not saying this in disputed territory, so I’m not brave. Harden has hauled a team with less to greater heights than Curry has. Curry’s narrative is built, he’s a scrawny shooter leading the NBA’s best team. This matchup gives me the most intrigue. Why? Well, Harden could buckle down and show his improved defense on Curry and go head to head a la Hakeem v. Robinson. Or, Harden could let Trevor Ariza lock up Curry while Harden shoulders the offensive load. Either way, the columns will write themselves.
The second story is simple. The NBA’s most hated group of overachievers versus the NBA’s golden children. The book has been written on why the Rockets aren’t exalted. The Rockets aren’t that good. The Rockets have solved basketball. Ultimately, the Rockets are the team nobody wanted. The rejects. The problems. The squad that battled so hard to buck the tank and rebuild model only to achieve 2nd in the Western Conference through integrity and tactics. That’s somehow the negative?
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NEW ADDITION TO THE PREVIEW!
Physicality. Plain and simple. The Grizzlies showed that you can rough up the Warriors and win some games. The Rockets have been classified as a “physical” team. As physical as an efficient transition team can be, really. The Rockets sport two of the NBA’s premier athletes in Josh Smith and Dwight Howard. If they can get the two-man game going similar to what we saw against the Clippers, the Warriors may be in some major trouble.
The Prediction
Alright, so far so good on the predictions, right? I called Houston in 7. Well, time to be let down. I feel like Houston has momentum but momentum and good feelings come to an end. Unless Houston finds a physical gear centered around Howard and Smith, they won’t be representing the West in the NBA Finals. Golden State in 6.
Stick with us here at House of Houston for all your Rockets playoff coverage.
Next: How The Rockets Could Get Past The Warriors