Should Donatas Motiejunas Be A Starter? Learning From The Lowry-Dragic Situation

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Entering the 2011-2012 season, the Houston Rockets didn’t have much to be cheerful about. The Rockets were seconds away from acquiring the league’s best big man in Pau Gasol (at the time) via trade and signing promising young center Nene Hilario, until NBA Commissioner David Stern vetoed the Pau Gasol trade. A shot at potentially the most deadly frontcourt in the NBA – gone just like that. However, as the season wore on, there was a bright spot in this hot mess that was the Houston Rockets – starting point guard Kyle Lowry.

The 25-year old point guard was having the season of his career averaging 14.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 6.6 assists per game. There were even rumblings of Lowry being a candidate for the All-Star Game that year. Things were looking good for the young point guard and this could have easily been labeled his “breakout year”. That is…until Lowry came down with a very odd bacterial infection that caused him to be hospitalized and miss a month of the regular season.

Backup Slovenian point guard Goran Dragic was expected to fill some pretty big shoes while Lowry was out and it’s safe to say he filled them well. Dragic took advantage of this opportunity and played the best basketball of his life. Dragic was able to shoot the 3-ball, drive to the rim with ease, run the fast break, and was also adept at finding his teammates. He averaged 11.7 points and 5.3 assists per game that season. Lowry returned and Head Coach Kevin McHale was faced with quite a dilemma. Should he start Goran Dragic or should he start Kyle Lowry? Dragic took the starting position and Lowry was forced to come off the bench.

Nov 1, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Rockets forward

Terrence Jones

(6) scores on a dunk during the fourth quarter against the Boston Celtics at Toyota Center. The Rockets defeated the Celtics 104-90. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Flash forward 3 years and McHale is faced with a VERY similar situation today. Last year, Terrence Jones played the best basketball of his career alongside Dwight Howard averaging 12.1 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks per game. Things were looking bright for the 22-year old power forward heading into the 2014-2015 season. Jones started off the season with some huge games with big numbers (Averaged 14 points, 7.5 rebounds, and nearly 2 blocks per game!) And then, suddenly out of nowhere Jones gets hurt with this bizarre nerve injury in his right leg. (Similar to Lowry in the sense that this injury was just as strange as the bacterial infection that Lowry suffered.) So the Rockets had to hang their hats at power forward to 7-foot backup Donatas Motiejūnas (Fondly known as D-Mo) who has been for the most part a disappointment that hasn’t panned out and translated his unique skill set to the NBA level.

Clearly things have changed. The talented big man with the array of post-moves we’ve seen dominate the previous two summer leagues is starting to live up to his potential.

Let’s take a look at some of his eye catching stats during the month of December:

16 points per game (52.4% FG Percentage and 42.9% from downtown)

6.4 rebounds per game

0.9 blocks per game

Dec 5, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Houston Rockets forward

Donatas Motiejunas

(20) shoots the ball over Minnesota Timberwolves center

Gorgui Dieng

(5) in the first half at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

These numbers are insane considering what we’ve seen from Motiejunas in the past. During that 10-game stretch Howard was out with injury, D-Mo actually managed to become the second option to Harden on the offensive end and was a huge reason the Rockets were able to pull out of that stretch with a 7-3 record. His usage rate in December was a staggering 27.7% so he clearly played a big part in what Houston was doing in that time.

It seems that the Rockets are finally figuring out the proper way to use D-Mo on the offensive end – down in the low post as opposed to trying to make him something he’s not and planting him on the 3-point line. The 7-footer shoots 56.2% from within 5 feet from the basket and 53.7% from 5-9 feet of the basket which is indicative of how good he is on the low block.

What’s most impressive about Motiejunas is his defense. Houston has never had a power forward in the Harden-era that could hold their own against the elite power forwards in the Western Conference. Terrence Jones’ inability to play defense became exposed in the first round the playoffs last year when he was forced to guard possibly the best power forward in the game in LaMarcus Aldridge. D-Mo, however, looks to be a different story. His rotations are quicker, he’s bigger (Size matters when you’re a big man trying to play defense in the NBA), and he’s stronger than Jones ever was. Yes, Jones is a much better shot-blocker, but shot-blocking tells very little about defensive prowess in the NBA.

Jan 18, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Milwaukee Bucks center John Henson (31) shoots while being defended by Houston Rockets forward Terrence Jones (6) and Donatas Motiejunas (20) during the second half at Toyota Center. The Rockets won 114-104. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

Now comes the difficult part – the decision Kevin McHale is dreading right now. When Terrence Jones returns, should he return to his starting position at the power forward spot or should Motiejunas be awarded that spot?

The clear answer right now to me is D-Mo. Purely just from a defensive standpoint, it just seems so clear to me that D-Mo needs to be out there toe-to-toe against the likes of Zach Randolph, Dirk Nowitzki, Anthony Davis, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Blake Griffin. He’s proven he has the ability to do so (Case and point: December 3rd Motiejunas held Randolph to just 8 points). Although it’s been a very small sample size for him, it’s enough to make Jones attempt to earn his starting position back from the ground up.

The only gripe I had with Motiejunas’ defense is he couldn’t manage to play defense without fouling previously. He’s doing a much better job of doing that now and it shows. The only thing you can say is 100% right now is Jones is a much better rebounder than Motiejunas, however, you don’t need a great rebounder to put alongside an already very capable rebounder in Dwight Howard.

Also, unlike another 7-footer that played alongside Howard (Omer Asik), Motiejunas doesn’t do much to get in the way of Dwight Howard. Having D-Mo in the post seems to force Howard to resort to running pick and roll with James Harden which we all know makes for a more efficient offense than Howard posting up on his own. Howard just doesn’t seem to be the type of post-player that people want him to be and that’s fine.

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I also think having Jones off the bench is a scary proposition for most teams. If used right, Jones has the ability to drive second units crazy with his athleticism and rebounding alone. You can definitely see Jones playing a Taj Gibson or Brandon Wright role off the bench for this team and still be successful. All have similar qualities already  – high energy guys that can rebound the ball, block shots, and make dirty baskets. This team could also benefit from having his scoring and rebounding off the bench to increase the production of this low-production second unit.

There is no set timetable for Jones returning but sooner or later, Jones will be listed as “day to day” and then “probable” and McHale will have to make the hard decision of how to utilize him. All that’s left to us is to wait and watch to see how this plays out.